The coronavirus pandemic isn’t over, but experts are getting more vocal about when things might at least appear normal-ish, at least here in the United States. As cases rage in India, more than half of Americans have had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, bringing cases down dramatically, although caution is still required. Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb appeared on Face the Nation Sunday to predict when we’d be back to normal — and also issued other essential advice.
Read each slide for his life-saving advice—and to ensure your health and the health of others, don’t miss these Sure Signs You Had COVID and Didn’t Know It.
1. The Virus Expert Said We’d Get Back to Something “Resembling” Normal By SummerNew York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has said New York City will fully reopen on July 1st—is this a good idea? “Look, I think as we look out into the summer, we’re going to be able to resume normal activity or something resembling normal activities—there’s still going to be a layer of protection on top of what we do,” said Gottlieb. Read on to hear about how mutations could complicate matters.
2. The Virus Expert Shared Some Really Good News Worth ReadingThe “situation in the U.S. continues to improve,” said Gottlieb. “And I think in the coming weeks, we’re going to see an acceleration [of] the declining cases. And one of the big reasons is we’ve vaccinated 145 million Americans—who’ve had at least one dose—about a hundred million Americans been fully vaccinated at this point. This has been a monumental achievement rolling out this vaccine, getting that many Americans vaccinated, it’s going to continue. We’ll continue to chip away at it. The rate of vaccination is going to slow in the coming weeks, but we’ll continue to pick up more people as we get into the summer. And if you want to get a harbinger of what it’s going to look like, look at San Francisco right now—about 71% of people in San Francisco have had at least one dose of vaccine, 47% have been fully vaccinated. They’re recording about 20 cases a day. They have about 20 people who’ve been hospitalized. So they’ve dramatically reduced COVID in that city. And it’s largely the result of vaccination. I think that right now, the gains that we’re seeing across the country are locked in. We’re entering warm months when this is going to create a backstop against the continued spread of coronavirus. And so we’re locking in these gains.”
3. The Virus Expert Said the Virus Will Keep Mutating, so Get Vaccinated. “The more that this virus continues to circulate, the more it’s going to continue to mutate,” said Gottlieb. “But the reality is that these variants aren’t just cropping up in one market and in migrating around the world, they’re cropping up simultaneously in every market. You’re getting what we call convergent evolution, where the same mutations that are arising in other parts of the world are also rising here spontaneously. There’s probably a finite number of ways that this virus is going to try to mutate to evade immunity. And it’s testing us everywhere in the world. So the same mutations that are arising in other parts of the world are rising here as well. They just haven’t gotten a foothold here in part because we’ve been vaccinating out public.”
RELATED: Most COVID Patients Did This Before Getting Sick
4. The Virus Expert Said The Numbers are Going Down Encouragingly “There’s a lot of testing going on at home,” said Gottlieb. “Now with those home tests that aren’t necessarily getting reported unless they’re positive cases. So I think the positivity rate around the country is even lower than what we’re recording, but we’re seeing cases come down with seeing hospitalizations come down, which is really the hardest measure of the overall impact of COVID hospitalizations are pretty good indicator of where the direction is heading and they’re coming down as well. So I think these gains are pretty sustainable at this point.”
5. How to Stay Safe Until July. So follow Fauci’s fundamentals and help end this pandemic, no matter where you live—get vaccinated ASAP, wear a face mask that fits snugly and is double layered, don’t travel, social distance, avoid large crowds, don’t go indoors with people you’re not sheltering with (especially in bars), practice good hand hygiene, and to protect your life and the lives of others, don’t visit any of these:
35 Places You’re Most Likely to Catch COVID.
Doctors have known for 72 years that masks do nothing to prevent the spread of airborne viruses.
#Facts they still know. But the government paid doctors who get INCENTIVES for diagnosing, putting cv patients on ventilators and marking cv on a death certificate is More lucrative than pushing science. Bad doctors are now being overshadowed by all the good doctors in America. Do you mean by prevent as in 100% effective? No of course not.
You would need a negative pressure with hepa and gas cartridges to get there. Goal is to cut transmission by 75% or so. Im a strong conservative but the stupidity around this situation is mind blowing. In a study where #SURGEONS did operations over one months in teams, one with masks and one without. The NON MASKED doctor’s patients had faster recoveries and LESS infections. Figure that out !!!
I had this argument with a friend at the beginning of all this because she said I should tell doctors not to wear one next time I need surgery. She couldn’t comprehend masks being used to prevent bacteria in spittle from landing on the open wound.
I envision a return to widespread traditionalism, widespread patriotism, and widespread freedom. The darkness may always be there but the light will shine so bright, we’ll hardly notice it. In Jesus name, Amen. #TuesdayPrayers
The COVID-19 Disaster That Did Not Happen in Texas
Cases are rising mainly in states with stricter disease control policies.
When Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, lifted his statewide face mask mandate and his limits on business occupancy in early March, Democrats warned that he was inviting a public health disaster. Yet a month and a half later, newly identified coronavirus cases in Texas have fallen by more than 50 percent, and daily deaths have dropped even more.
Meanwhile, states with stricter COVID-19 regulations have seen spikes in daily new cases. This is not the pattern you would expect to see if government-imposed restrictions played a crucial role in curtailing the pandemic, as advocates of those policies assume.
Abbott’s critics did not mince words. President Joe Biden said the governor’s decision reflected “Neanderthal thinking.” Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, said it was “extraordinarily dangerous” and “will kill Texans.”
One reason those dark prophecies have not come true: The practical impact of Abbott’s changes was much less significant than his detractors implied.
Most businesses in Texas had been allowed to operate at 75 percent of capacity since mid-October, when Abbott also allowed bars to reopen. It was implausible that removing the cap would have much of an impact on virus transmission, even in businesses that were frequently hitting the 75 percent limit.
While Abbott said Texans would no longer be legally required to cover their faces in public, he urged them to keep doing so, and many businesses continued to require masks. At the stores I visit in Dallas, there has been no noticeable change in policy or in customer compliance.
Conversely, face mask mandates and occupancy limits did not prevent COVID-19 surges in states such as Michigan, where the seven-day average of newly confirmed infections has risen more than fivefold since March 1; Maine, which has seen a nearly threefold increase; and Minnesota, where that number has more than doubled. Cases also rose during that period, although less dramatically, in other states with relatively strict COVID-19 rules, including Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Washington.
Florida, a state often criticized as lax, also has seen a significant increase in daily new cases: 34 percent since mid-March. But Florida, despite its relatively old population, still has a per capita COVID-19 death rate only a bit higher than California’s, even though the latter state’s restrictions have been much more sweeping and prolonged.
In any event, COVID-19 surges are happening mainly in states with more legal restrictions than Florida or Texas is imposing. The Washington Post nevertheless says “experts…agree” that rising infection numbers are largely due to “a broad loosening of public health measures, such as mask mandates and limits on indoor dining”—a claim that is tenable only if you ignore all the countervailing examples.
States differ from each other in various ways that may affect the spread of COVID-19, of course, so you can learn only so much from comparisons like these. But several systematic studies have cast doubt on the effectiveness of broad legal restrictions.
While some researchers have concluded that lockdowns had an important impact, others say there is little or no evidence that they affected mortality rates or trends in cases. According to a Nature Human Behaviour study of 226 countries published in November, “a suitable combination of NPIs [nonpharmaceutical interventions] is necessary to curb the spread of the virus,” but “less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic ones (for example, a national lockdown).”
In a 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research paper, UCLA economist Andrew Atkeson and two other researchers looked at COVID-19 trends in 23 countries and 25 U.S. states that had seen more than 1,000 deaths from the disease by late July. After finding little evidence that variations in public policy explained the course of the epidemic in different places, they concluded that the role of legal restrictions “is likely overstated.”
That much seems safe to say in light of more recent experience in the United States.
California has lowest COVID-19 rate in America: Here’s why
Big turnaround due to continued vaccine rollout, masks and immunity from past surges.
After a winter of misery during the worst pandemic in a century, California is now seeing a major surge of hope this spring.
Buoyed by a steady pace of vaccinations and the immunity of people who already have had the disease, California now has the lowest rate of COVID-19 cases anywhere in the United States.
“The worst of it is behind us,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco.
California’s rate of 33 cases per 100,000 people Wednesday morning was less than a third of the U.S. average of 116 cases. By comparison, Texas had more than double California’s rate, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while Illinois and New York were four times higher, Florida five times and Michigan 10 times.
Meanwhile, California’s positive test rate also is the lowest of any state —
Just 0.9% of people, or fewer than 1 in 100 who were tested for COVID-19 in the past week, had the disease. That’s a quarter of the national average and down from 14% statewide 4 months ago. “It’s fabulous — just outstanding,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor emeritus of public health at UC Berkeley. “It’s been a remarkable few weeks.”
Deaths and serious illness, which once overwhelmed hospitals, are in sustained retreat. The number of people who are dying each day in California from COVID-19 has fallen 90% since the peak in January. There were 65 deaths statewide on Wednesday, down from 684 on Jan. 5. Hospitalizations have fallen 91% statewide over the same time.
Perhaps most remarkable, California’s most populous county, Los Angeles, which was a national hotbed of COVID-19 sickness in December and January, is on the cusp of moving into the yellow tier under California’s system — reserved for counties with the lowest case rates — as soon as next week, possibly joined by San Francisco, Marin and others. Disneyland, a symbol of the Golden State that was closed for more than a year, reopens Friday.
The trend isn’t fully appreciated yet by the public and the media, say some experts.
“We’ve gotta get out the good news and not always with ‘but this’ or ‘but that,’ ‘ said Dr. Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at UC-San Francisco. “It’s a success story.” To be sure, the pandemic isn’t over. Michigan struggled recently with a jump in cases. And Oregon this week began tightening rules for restaurants in Portland and other cities after its cases rose.
But Gandhi said it’s unlikely that California will see a new surge like Oregon or other states.
She and other experts say California’s fortunes have turned around for three main reasons, all of which continue to protect the state from new spikes.
First are vaccines. After federal delivery of vaccines has increased with more streamlined systems, every day a larger number of Americans are getting vaccinated. On Tuesday, 337,000 more Californians became vaccinated. Overall, 61% of adults 18 and older in California — 18.5 million people — have received at least one dose, according to the CDC. And that number is growing by 1% every day. More important: 87% of people over age 65 in California have received at least one dose, the group that was most at risk of dying.
“You can mask and social distance until the cows come home,” Gandhi said. “But the only way to get out of pandemic is to create immunity in the population to that pathogen. Because of mass vaccination rates, we are going to stay at low case rates.”
The second big reason for California’s reversal is natural immunity. Officially, 3.6 million people have gotten COVID-19 in California since the pandemic began 14 months ago. But in some communities, particularly in Southern California, that number is much higher. When people survive the disease, they build up antibodies and T cells that help fight off future infections. That resistance lasts at least eight months, research shows, and probably longer. California had more infections than other states before and now is better protected.
Third is the lack of variants. Other states, such as Michigan, have been hard hit by the so-called “U.K. variant” of COVID-19, which is 50% to 70% more contagious than the main strain. But California hasn’t seen a significant outbreak of that type. Instead, two “West Coast” variants, which are only about 20% more contagious, prevailed. Researchers aren’t sure why, although they say Californians’ general willingness to wear masks, wash their hands, social distance and follow the state’s tier rules for business reopenings has helped.
“The West Coast variants seem to be outcompeting other strains,” Swartzberg said, urging people to remain vigilant. “Why that is is beyond me, but that seems to be happening so far.”
What could go wrong?
“We have two big giant international airports — SF and LA — who are flying people in from all over the world,” Rutherford said. “I worry about variants. As each day goes by and more and more people are vaccinated, the concern goes down.”
Rutherford said that by June 15, the day that Gov. Gavin Newsom said he will drop the tier system and limits on gatherings, he expects that California will reach herd immunity of 70% to 80% of the population having been vaccinated or having natural immunity from previously suffering from COVID-19.
That will be a political boost to Newsom as he faces a recall election, political experts say.
“COVID has become the bullseye on him,” said Larry Gerston, a professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University who is writing a book about the pandemic and the recall. “To the extent cases are dropping, that will only help him. It means the state is returning to normal activities. Kids are going back to school. Businesses are reopening. It’s a perfect storm in reverse, at least the way things are going today.”