US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris smiles during a presidential debate with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. Historian Allan Lichtman has said polls may be underestimating Democratic voting strength. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
US Election ‘Nostradamus’ says Polls Underestimating Kamala Harris Support
US Election ‘Nostradamus’ Hits Back at Criticism of His Predictions (msn.com)
Story by Joe Edwards
The raven is a symbol of intelligence, wisdom, prophecy, and the unknown123.
It is a symbol of death, loss, and grief 3 4 5. In the “The Raven” by Edgar Allan Poe, the raven represents the speaker’s unending grief over the loss of Lenore, and his inability to escape his fate 4 5. The raven also contrasts with the bust of Pallas, a symbol of reason and logic, in the speaker’s chamber, a symbol of his isolation and despair 5.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris engaged in a combative first interview with Fox News on Wednesday, sparring on immigration policy and shifting policy positions while asserting that if elected, she would not represent a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Harris’ interview with Fox’s Bret Baier marked her first foray onto the network, which is popular with conservative viewers, as she looked to broaden her outreach to GOP-leaning voters with less than three weeks until Election Day. Her nearly-30-minute sit-down with Baier repeatedly grew heated, with the two talking over each other, as he pressed her on immigration and her changing policy stances since her first run for president in 2020.
Kamala Harris Sits Down with Bret Baier in Exclusive interview (youtube.com)
4 takeaways from Harris’s interview on Fox News (msn.com)
Watch the explosive exclusive interview where Fox News’ Bret Baier puts Kamala Harris on the hot seat! The Vice President squirms under pressure as Baier grills her on the toughest issues facing the nation. From border control to economic policy, no topic is off-limits in this shocking exchange. You won’t want to miss this rare glimpse into the VP’s unfiltered thoughts and reactions. Tune in for the full, unedited conversation that’s got everyone talking!
Her nearly-30 minute sitdown with Baier repeatedly grew heated, with the two talking over each other, as he pressed her on immigration and her changing policy stances since her first run for president in 2020. When Baier kept talking as Harris tried to respond to his challenges on immigration, Harris told him, “May I please finish. … You have to let me finish please.”
Harris tried repeatedly to pivot the conversation to attacking Donald Trump.
But she also had plenty to say about herself. A week after saying she couldn’t think of any move made by Biden that she would have done differently, Harris asserted that “My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency.”
Harris did not offer specifics, but said, “Like every new president that comes into office, I will bring my life experiences, and my professional experiences and fresh and new ideas.” Asked to clarify her assertion that she wants to “turn the page,” though Democrats currently hold the White House, Harris said she is running on “turning the page from the last decade in which we have been burdened with the kind of rhetoric coming from Donald Trump.”
On immigration, Harris expressed regret over the deaths of women who were killed by people who were detained and then released after crossing into the U.S. illegally during the Biden administration, but she criticized Trump for his role in blocking a bipartisan immigration bill earlier this year that would have boosted border funding.
“I am so sorry for her loss, sincerely,” Harris said after Baier played footage of the mother of Jocelyn Nungaray blaming Biden and Harris for her daughter’s death. Harris indicated she no longer supports decriminalizing crossing the border illegally, as she did in 2019.
“That was five years ago and I am very clear that I will follow the law,” she said. She gave the same answer about proposals to allow those in the U.S. illegally to get driver’s licenses and subsidized healthcare. Of Trump, she said, “People are exhausted with someone who professes to be a leader and who spends full time demeaning and engaging in personal grievances.” She added, “He’s not stable.”
She also sought to focus Fox viewers on Trump’s talk of “the enemy within” and threats to punish political rivals.Baier challenged Harris over her attestations to Biden’s mental stamina after his disastrous debate with Trump in June that forced his exit from the 2024 presidential race and her elevation to the top of the ticket.
She again defended Biden, but added, “Joe Biden is not on the ballot and Donald Trump is.” Trump’s campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Harris was “angry, defensive, and once again abdicated any responsibility for the problems Americans are facing.” She added that if “Kamala can’t handle the pressure of an interview with Fox News—she certainly can’t handle the pressure of being president of the United States.”
Pushing back against Baier’s line of questioning at times, Harris at one point told her interviewer, “I would like it if we could have a conversation that is grounded in a full assessment of the facts.”
PolitiFact | Live fact-checking Kamala Harris’ interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier
Harris’ interview with Fox News is marked by testy exchanges over immigration and more (msn.com)
Kamala Harris ‘didn’t have answers’ for many questions put to her in Fox interview (youtube.com)
Democrats See 103 Percent Increase in Pennsylvania Voters Leaving the Party (msn.com)
Victor Davis Hanson: Trump will beat radical Kamala Harris – YouTube
Kamala Harris held to account over southern border (youtube.com)
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman has suggested that polling is underestimating support for the Democratic Party and Vice President Kamala Harris. Replying to a question during one of his regular YouTube livestreams on whether reports that the Democratic Party was pulling ahead in terms of mail-in voting in some states (such as Pennsylvania, a key swing state) could be a sign they could win them, Lichtman said:
“I can’t say it proves that states would be blue, but it’s certainly a sign that it’s likely that these states would be blue,” the American University professor said. “The polls in 2016 underestimated Republican voting strength. It’s my view based on what I saw from 2022-2024 that the polls are now underestimating Democratic voting strength.”
According to FiveThirtyEight, just 2.4 points separate the candidates as of Wednesday morning. “As we saw in the special election for the congressional seat in New York held by the disgraced George Santos, the Democrat outperformed the poll right before the election by seven points.”
Santos, a former Republican representative, pleaded guilty to two charges relating to campaign fraud in August. He represented the Third Congressional District of New York. Following a special election for his seat, he was replaced by Democratic Representative Tom Suozzi, who had previously held the seat.
Lichtman added: “Even if the polls are off by a point or two, the Democrats are going to do a point or two better than the polls—they will sweep Pennsylvania.” The latest aggregation of national polls currently show Harris narrowly leading the former president in the race for the White House.
Lichtman has earned the moniker “Nostradamus” for his impressive track record predicting the outcome of presidential elections using his model—”The Keys to the White House”—though the system is not without its critics. Lichtman has already predicted that Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, based on this model.
His system hinges on 13 keys, which evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on a variety of factors, including the economy, foreign policy and domestic politics, including social unrest, major scandals and the presence of a major third-party candidate. If six or more of the 13 keys—all true/false statements—are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election.
Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.
The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are these:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
And Kamala is an accessory to the biggest lie told to the world. Remember? The one where they all told us Joe was at the top of the game and everyone else was wrong. She was also appointed with no votes from constituents.
I can’t believe Trump tried to overthrow our government by flooding our nation with millions and millions of illegals to change the electoral votes per state as well as provide amnesty and a pathway to citizenship so they can all vote for their saviors, all while we pay to support them. Then after bringing in all the illegals, he’s supporting states making Voter ID illegal! Can you believe it?
I’m still mad at him about that! More Democrat Lies!! 
Don’t fall for the propaganda from the overtly biased media.
Verifiable facts: support for Harris in national polls fell to single digits before she dropped out of the 2020 race. Her approval rating as vice president was 28%, a HISTORIC LOW for any modern vice president. After democrats could no longer pretend to support Biden, they now embrace Harris after they previously rejected her and had no say in her recent nomination.
Democrats love to say Trump is a threat to democracy. But they are apparently OK with their party’s leaders not allowing voters to choose their own candidate. These people somehow managed to live through Trump’s first term (and probably enjoyed the prosperity of those years), and now believe that THIS time he will surely destroy democracy!
The United States suffered the embarrassment of having a puppet president for the last four years. We can’t allow another one with Harris. She has hidden voters. Kind of similar to what happened with Trump in 2016, but with opposite results. Many supporters (especially men) are laying low. But they’re going to vote. On top of this, Harris is underestimated as a fighter. She was raised by a determined and intelligent mom who taught her to fight like hell. “I love a good fight,” Kamala said last week with a capable grin…Oh baby, baby we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
She is a political chameleon and she cackles afterwards like a psycho? . One need only examine her answers on various political issues in response to a 2019 ACLU questionnaire to the DNC’s presidential candidates. She has virtually turned a 180 on every single one of those answers. Why? Because it is no longer politically expedient or tenable.
She will say anything and do anything to be installed as president. But make no mistake about it, she is a mere empty suit, an avatar, who is not truly in control. Biden being forced into “retirement” within 48 hours after publicly declaring he would not budge, shows you that the true power lies outside the Oval Office, at least with DNC elected officials.
I’m not a believer in Lichtman’s “model”, per se. But he is a good analyst and, with the polling adjustments made this year to counter the Trump undercounts of 20 and 16…plus the Harris ground game, with the voter registration and early voting numbers coming in, there are definitely silent blocks favoring Harris this go-round that could end up making Trumpers, who are convinced Trump is winning, feel like normal people felt after the election of 2016.
Trump is now the favorite amongst the professional oddsmakers.
In addition to their aggregate of pollsters, Real Clear Politics runs an aggregate of seven of the top odds makers as well. Their model had the oddsmakers preferring Harris +8.8 back on 8/15. As of this afternoon the model has Trump +16.4. A +25.2 swing for Trump in two months. He’s surging and Harris has three weeks to turn it around. Do oddsmakers get it wrong sometimes?
Yes. Are they right more often than not? Absolutely.
It is true that in the Trump era polls have so far underestimated his support which should concern people who care about retaining our democracy. However, due to a number of factors unique in this election, I believe they are underestimating Harris’s support.
In particular, the unusually high numbers of undecided Republicans and African American voters. Those are two constituencies that generally “come home” to their party in large numbers. The difference this year is the number of undecided Republicans is unusually high.
My bet is because they can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump.
Many of them are likely to stay home or even vote for Harris. On the other hand, it is not unusual to have a large number of black voter’s undecided at this point and they usually come home. There is little reason to suggest that will not happen in this election especially with the existential threat posed by electing Trump again.
Odds makers absolutely are the best source for predicting an outcome as math is the only objective foundation, and opinion and bias does not serve as a handicapper. In fact, it costs them. We can tell from Harris’s scrambling and Obama’s lecturing they don’t like what they’re seeing.
What is wrong with Lichtman? Is he so damn egotist about his keys that he can’t stand the thought they are wrong and hence HE is wrong? He was supporting Biden early on and even as Biden’s polls dropped beyond hope Lichtman’s model kept saying he should win. And that tells you his model and theory only happens to have been working for many years as its missing data (it can’t account for incompetent candidates)!
For example he keeps claiming the economic figure he uses is godly and the fact people are still underwater compared to the 23% inflation over the Biden years (total inflation) doesn’t matter. And that inflation and how people still feel it in their wallets every day is playing a big part into perceptions driving the election. And he simply refuses to look into this despite inflation of this level not having an effect on any elections since the Carter years. He just refuses to adjust like any scientist would, taking their theory and model and when results do not predict out, you change it (scientific method). And that shows he is more charlatan and showman than science related.
I don’t know about this one. I know, in 2016, they certainly underestimated the support for Trump. This was partially a result of Trump’s supporters’ mistrust of polling services leading to fewer respondents than would normally be expected. Since Trump’s followers are no less wary of pollsters now (likely more so), I don’t see why the results would be skewed the other direction this time.
The Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol was the culmination of months of false claims about election fraud, including a litany recited by then-President Donald Trump in a speech shortly before a mob stormed the building, temporarily halting the counting of electoral votes in a joint session of Congress1. To provide new clarity on the events of that day, EpochTV and The Epoch Times have produced a documentary, “The Real Story of January 6,” which takes a close look at the shooting of 35-year-old Air Force veteran Ashli Babbitt and the deaths of three other supporters of former President Donald J. Trump2.
The Real Story of January 6 Part 1 | [Documentary] 📺🙃 EpochTV (altcast.tv)
The Real Story of January 6 Part 2: The Long Road Home |(youtube.com)
Plot to Overturn the Election (full documentary) | FRONTLINE (youtube.com)
Jan. 6, Three Years Later: 10 Documentaries to Watch | FRONTLINE (pbs.org)
Using Lichtman’s 13 keys to predict the election results Trump wins. His 13 keys are True or False questions with each true favoring the incumbent party.
1. Incumbent party mandate – Joe did not have a mandate he was elected because he was not Trump and the Democrat party stole the election, the math does not add up.
2. The incumbent party has more seats in the House of Representatives – False
3. There was no serious contest for the incumbent party’s nomination. – False, there was no primary for the incumbent party’s nominee at all.
4. No significant challenge by a third party. – True
5. The incumbent party had a strong short-term economy – False wages went down and inflation went up
6. The incumbent party had a strong long-term Economy – False, it was neither particularly strong or weak.
7. The incumbent party effects major policy change – True although it had arguably negative results especially on border policy changes.
8. No Social unrest during incumbent party’s term – False College campuses taken over by pro-Palestinian demonstrators for several months and it is starting up again on some college campuses.
9. Incumbent party has no scandal during term in office. – Falsely hiding of Biden’s senility and Cocaine in the White House and Hunter’s ties to Joe being part of his influence peddling schemes are definitive scandals as well as the immigration debacle.
10. No foreign or military failure. – False (Afghanistan was a total failure and embarrassment). Joe pulled out leaving Americans behind…he actually left US citizens behind saying “you’re on your own”. Oh, and he left billions in military equipment for the Taliban
11. Major foreign or military success. – False the world is on the brink of another world war; China is threatening Taiwan and Iran will soon threaten Israel with nukes.
12. The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero. – False Harris is not a good speaker and she is not a national hero of any sort.
13. Uncharismatic challenger and is not a national hero. – Toss Up Could go either way depending on whether you believe Trump has charisma or not. However, for the sake of argument let’s just say True. In my estimation that is. But I tell everybody don’t listen to how he says it… but listen to what Trump says,
They say crime is down under Biden’s Term but don’t believe it for a second.
The FBI openly and publicly posted declining violent crime stats when it was in the news cycle and a topic at the presidential debates. Trump was “fact checked” by ABC moderators that crime actually declined from 2021 to 2022 when the issue was raised.
Now, just days ago, with the news cycle moved on to the next big thing, the FBI quietly revised its nationwide violent crime stats to show that crime did not decline but actually surged from 2021 to 2022, meaning that Trump was, in fact, correct.
According to a criminologist professor Carly Moody at William & Mary, the FBI has never issued a revision so large, and what troubled Professor Moody more was that the FBI made this revision without any explanation and quietly. If you believe this is just some type of coincidence, I got a bridge to sell you. The “deep state” is real, and it is for Harris and against Trump. That’s why no poll matters. If Trump is winning, mail in ballots for Harris will just appear. If the deep state has the power to remove a sitting president (Biden) within 48 hours after he openly declared he would not budge, it can sure as heck install Harris.
I know for sure that the legal voting Immigrants, ( who don’t do polls), that have families and roots seeded in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belorussia (now Belarus), Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirgizija (now Kyrgyzstan), Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia (now Moldova), Poland, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan are voting for Harris because they know Trump will pull out of NATO and then Putin will run wild!
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Oh brother, what does Edgar Allen Poe have to say about this is the Raven.
The Raven Edgar Allan Poe – Search Videos (bing.com)
“The Raven” follows an unnamed narrator on a dreary night in December who sits reading “forgotten lore” by the remains of a fire[6] as a way to forget the death of his beloved Lenore. A “tapping at [his] chamber door”[6] reveals nothing, but excites his soul to “burning”.[7] The tapping is repeated, slightly louder, and he realizes it is coming from his window. When he goes to investigate, a raven flutters into his chamber. Paying no attention to the man, the raven perches on a bust of Pallas above the door.
Amused by the raven’s comically serious disposition, the man asks that the bird tell him its name. The raven’s only answer is “Nevermore”.[7] The narrator is surprised that the raven can talk, though at this point it has said nothing further. The narrator remarks to himself that his “friend” the raven will soon fly out of his life, just as “other friends have flown before”[7] along with his previous hopes. As if answering, the raven responds again with “Nevermore”.[7] The narrator reasons that the bird learned the word “Nevermore” from some “unhappy master” and that it is the only word it knows.[7]
Even so, the narrator pulls his chair directly in front of the raven, determined to learn more about it. He thinks for a moment in silence, and his mind wanders back to his lost Lenore. He thinks the air grows denser and feels the presence of angels, and wonders if God is sending him a sign that he is to forget Lenore. The bird again replies in the negative, suggesting that he can never be free of his memories. The narrator becomes angry, calling the raven a “thing of evil” and a “prophet“.[8]
Finally, he asks the raven whether he will be reunited with Lenore in Heaven. When the raven responds with its typical “Nevermore”, he is enraged, and, calling the bird a liar, commands it to return to the “Plutonian shore”[8]—but it does not move. At the time of the poem’s narration, the raven “still is sitting”[8] on the bust of Pallas. The raven casts a shadow on the chamber floor and the despondent narrator laments that out of this shadow his soul shall be “lifted ‘nevermore'”.[8]
Project 2025, Social Security and Medicare
Since Biden dropped out and endorsed her, Harris has delivered two speeches and both times she referred to Project 2025 — a conservative plan for remaking the federal government via the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 — as Trump’s plan, even though the former president has disavowed it.
And in both speeches, Harris cited Project 2025 as evidence that Trump wants to cut Social Security and Medicare, even though the former president has offered no plans to do so.
Harris, Wilmington, Delaware, July 22: He and his extreme Project 2025 will weaken the middle class and bring us backward — please do note that — back to the failed trickle-down policies that gave huge tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations and made working families pay the cost; back to policies that put Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block; back to policies that treat health care as only a privilege for the wealthy, instead of what we all know it should be, which is a right for every American.
Harris, Milwaukee, July 23: But Donald Trump wants to take our country backward. He and his extreme Project 2025 agenda will weaken the middle class. Like, we know we got to take this seriously. And can you believe they put that thing in writing? Read it here: 2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf (project2025.org)
But here’s the thing. When you read it, you will see Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security and Medicare.
What is Project 2025? Project 2025 Explained | 5 Criticisms of Project 2025 (youtube.com)
Agenda 47 (styled by the Trump campaign as Agenda47) is the manifesto of the Republican Party presidential candidate Donald Trump, which details policies that would be implemented upon his election as the 47th president of the United States.[a] Agenda 47 is a collection of formal policy plans of Donald Trump,[1][2] many of which would rely on executive orders and significantly expanded executive power.[3]
The platform has been criticized for its approach to climate change[4] and public health;[5] its legality and feasibility;[6] and the risk that it will increase inflation. Journalists have described it as fascist[7][8] or authoritarian.[9][10]
In September 2024, Trump’s campaign launched a tour called “Team Trump Agenda 47 Policy Tour” to promote Agenda 47.[11][12]
As we have said before, Trump says he has no plans to cut Social Security or Medicare.
In his four years as president, Trump did not propose cutting Social Security’s retirement benefits, and his budgets included bipartisan proposals to reduce the growth of Medicare without cutting benefits. (For more, see our February 2020 article “Competing Claims on Trump’s Budget and Seniors,” which details how Trump as president proposed cuts to the Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income programs, but not to retirement benefits.)
After leaving office, Trump has pledged not to cut Social Security, most recently on July 20 in his first joint campaign appearance with his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio. “We will not cut one penny from Social Security and Medicare,” Trump said in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
In January 2023, when House Republicans were discussing ways to cut government spending, Trump said in a video: “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security to help pay for Joe Biden’s reckless spending spree.”
As for Project 2025, Trump described it at his Michigan rally as “seriously extreme.” He added, “I don’t know anything about it. I don’t want to know anything about it.” Project 2025 lays out “four goals and principles” for Medicare “reform,” but there is nothing in the 900-plus page document that calls for cutting Social Security, which the authors of the project call a “myth.”
Harris and the Democrats link the project and its agenda to Trump because, as CNN has reported, there are more than 100 people involved in the project who have worked in the Trump administration. Prominent figures such as Mark Meadows, who was Trump’s chief of staff, and Stephen Miller, a top aide who was involved in setting major immigration policy, are associated with conservative groups that advised the project.
Project 2025, which mentions Trump hundreds of times, includes concepts that Trump supports, including — as Harris alluded to — cutting business taxes and rewriting the nation’s health care laws. But it also proposes things that Trump did not do when he was president, such as setting just two individual tax brackets of 15% and 30% (down from seven) and eliminating or transforming entire government agencies.
There is no telling what parts of Project 2025 Trump would implement, if elected.
But Project 2025 is not his “agenda” or “plan,” as Harris said.
Trump’s UNSTOPPABLE Surge: SHOCKING Poll Results from ALL 50 States GUARANTEE Victory! (youtube.com)
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The Under-The-Table Ideological Battle That Would Follow A Kamala Harris Win.
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The Battleground State Where Kamala Harris Is Winning the Most Republicans.
Climate Change, The Silent New Enemy Of Armed Forces Everywhere (msn.com)
How little-known fault lines could trigger next major earthquake in US (msn.com)
Is the US electoral system favoring a few voters over the rest of the country?
Victor Davis Hanson: Trump will beat radical Kamala Harris (youtube.com)
Solar Heavy – Final Frontier (youtube.com)
