It’s not the fact you got knocked down 100 times. It’s the fact you’ve chosen to get back up 101 times. “Our greatest glory is not in never failing, but in rising every time we fall.” – Confucius
6 Ways Your Body Feels the Impact
July 21, 2023
It’s no secret that being proactive is the best way to stay healthy. Experts recommend a dental cleaning every six months, a yearly check-up with your doctor and regular screenings for certain cancers. But when did you last assess your mental health or take steps to improve it?
It’s easy to think of mental health as separate from physical health. But mental health significantly impacts your physical health, says MU Health care psychiatrist Dr. Meelie Bordoloi. You may be feeling the effects without realizing that stress, anxiety or depression is to blame.
Physical Reactions to Mental Health Issues
Over time, poor mental health can take a toll on your body and increase your risk for chronic conditions:
Anxiety increases the risk of arthritis, COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and high blood pressure.
Depression heightens the risk of diabetes, heart disease and stroke.
Stress raises your risk for obesity, diabetes and heart disease.
But mental health doesn’t just affect your physical health “someday.” Mental health issues can immediately affect how you feel and how your body functions in many ways:
1. Increased cortisol levels
Cortisol is a hormone that regulates how your body reacts to stress — when you’re under stress, your adrenal glands release cortisol. But managing stress isn’t the only function of cortisol. It also helps to regulate:
Blood pressure
Blood sugar
Inflammation
Metabolism
Sleep
Chronic stress increases cortisol levels and impacts all these bodily functions. “High cortisol levels can lead to weight gain, increased blood sugar, skin changes, and various medical issues,” Dr. Bordoloi says, “especially if you’re not managing your stress well.”
2. Impaired executive function
People with depression often have unusually low activity in their prefrontal cortex — the area of the brain responsible for decision-making, problem-solving and working memory. These skills are collectively known as executive functions. You use these skills daily to work and learn.
Anxiety also impacts your executive function skills. It can cause you to overthink, making it hard to focus.
“These mental health issues may lead to poor work performance or failure to finish tasks,” Dr. Bordoloi says. “In children, it can manifest as defiance and not wanting to do schoolwork.”
3. Digestive distress
If you live with stress or anxiety, you might feel it in your gut. “Your gut health and mental health are closely connected,” Dr. Bordoloi says. “You need to pay attention to both.”
Your mental health influences your gut health by impacting your diet, causing inflammation and altering your hormone levels. These changes may impact the balance of bacteria in your gut, ultimately affecting how it functions.
4. Reduced energy and motivation
Chemical imbalances associated with depression can lower your desire to be active and productive. Dopamine and serotonin are “feel good” neurotransmitters that send signals throughout your body.
“When your levels of dopamine and serotonin are low, as happens with depression, you don’t have a feeling of well-being,” Dr. Bordoloi says. “That can lead to a lack of energy and interest in activities you previously enjoyed.”
Dopamine and serotonin also play an essential role in regulating your sleep. An imbalance can affect how much rest you get and how much energy you have the next day.
5. Pseudo symptoms
Stress and anxiety can cause physical symptoms that mimic the signs of severe physical disorders. These may include:
Heart palpitations that feel like a heart attack
Muscle spasms or paralysis when mental health issues disrupt signals from your brain
Psychogenic non-epileptic seizures (PNES) that look like an epileptic seizure
Sensory disruption resulting in trouble with vision, hearing, smell, touch or taste
Trouble swallowing
“In many cases, we cannot know the true cause of the symptoms without testing,”
Dr. Bordoloi says. “These are all manifestations of stress and mental health disorders.
6. Sensitivity to future stressors
A period of chronic stress can impact your body forever. Your body’s normal stress reaction adapts to meet the needs of chronic stress. So even after you remove the stress from your life and improve your mental health, your body may remain sensitive to stress triggers.
“This change may not be noticeable until the next trigger pops up,” Dr. Bordoloi says.
“But when it does, your body may react strongly, even if it’s only a minor stressor.”
Children and Mental Health
There is no physical difference in how children’s and adults’ bodies react to stress and mental health issues, Dr. Bordoloi says. But when adverse childhood experiences cause extreme stress, that child’s lifelong health can be impacted.
“When a child experiences stress like that at an early age, they may develop physical ailments, such as heart failure and high cholesterol, at a younger age than someone who hasn’t experienced extreme stress,” she says. “It can ultimately lead to a shortened lifespan.”
Even though the body’s physical reaction is the same, teens and children may not handle stress as well as adults.
“The frontal cortex is still not very developed, even in a teenager,” Dr. Bordoloi says. “When exposed to stress as an adult, you have more maturity and better decision-making capacity. You’ll react differently than a child without experience dealing with stress.”
Strategies for Managing Mental Health
Keeping yourself mentally healthy often involves proactively taking care of your mind and mood and knowing how to manage acute symptoms when they arise.
Stay mentally healthy
Making minor adjustments to your daily lifestyle can go a long way for mental health, according to Dr. Bordoloi. She recommends:
Eating a healthy diet consisting of unprocessed, whole foods
Exercising regularly to help regulate dopamine
Exposing yourself to sunlight for at least five minutes a day
Getting enough sleep (experts recommend seven to eight hours a night)
Keeping a routine, which is especially important for children and teens
Practicing mind-body exercises, including yoga, meditation, tai chi and Qigong
Manage acute stress or a panic attack
If you find yourself in a stressful situation or managing an anxiety attack, try:
Deep breathing, which decreases your heart rate and calms your nervous system
Engaging your senses by squeezing a ball, touching ice or showering in hot water
Meditating and practicing mindfulness to bring your mind back to the present moment
Relaxing muscles with progressive relaxation techniques to release tension associated with anxiety
Removing yourself from the trigger that started the cascade if you can identify it
The impact of stress on the thyroid occurs by slowing your body’s metabolism. This is another way that stress and weight gain are linked. When thyroid function slows during stress, triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4) hormone levels fall. Also, the conversion of T4 hormone to T3 may not occur, leading to higher level of reverse T3.
Case-control and population-based studies provide conflicting results regarding the association between thyroid hormones and cancer. However, a large body of evidence suggests that subclinical and clinical hyperthyroidism increase the risk of several solid malignancies while hypothyroidism may also reduce aggressiveness or delay the onset of cancer.
Patients respond in different ways to their diagnoses, the initial medical workup, subsequent test results, and the implications of all that is happening to them. Many patients respond by…LOVING LIFE AND NOT FEARING DEATH!!
It’s hard to believe after the Fox News interviews, the daily barrage of screaming ads and all the history on these two candidates that anyone would be left undecided with less than three weeks until election day.
Yet there they were, surprisingly easy to find, drinking lattes at a strip mall Starbucks, browsing magazines at Barnes & Noble and eating eggs with their spouses at a pancake restaurant. Some were leaning toward former President Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris but were waiting on family meetings or a final round of online research. Others were hoping for inspiration on the drive to the precinct on Nov. 5.
I spent three packed days last week in three industrial states that have proven critical in deciding the presidency during the Trump era — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — on and off the campaign trail with Harris, talking to voters along the way.
Polls show the race a dead heat in the three so-called “blue wall” states, along with the four other battlegrounds, with about 5% of voters undecided. But it’s difficult for broad surveys to capture the complexities and contradictions that run through voters’ minds as they process an unprecedented election that involves a candidate who tried to overturn his 2020 election loss and would be the first president in history with multiple indictments and felony convictions.
I found Democrats battling insomnia and altering travel plans, Republicans who were friendly to a reporter but suspicious of the mainstream media and an overriding sense of disillusionment.
“Both of them are not good,” said Amgad Fram, a 61-year-old engineer from a Detroit suburb called Novi who was meeting for coffee with a friend.
He started the conversation saying he would vote for Trump for the third time because he’s going to “stop the flood of people coming to this country,” Fram said “You know, I shouldn’t be saying that, because I am a foreigner,” who moved from Jordan in 1981.
He is angry about a recent break-in at his brother’s mansion by Ecuadorian migrants here illegally, he said. And he pointed to sky-high unemployment in Jordan, which has one of the world’s highest refugee populations, as a cautionary tale.
But the conversation flipped when he began discussing Trump’s refusal to concede the 2020 election and his increasingly authoritarian rhetoric.
“I don’t really like that,” Fram said. “The reason we first immigrated to this country was to be free and to get rid of those dictators.”
He put his current odds of supporting Trump at 60% and said it would depend on a meeting with his large family.
The more committed Republicans I spoke with tended to dismiss those aspects of Trump’s rhetoric, blaming the media for a double standard and accusing prosecutors of pushing a political agenda.
“You kind of dance with the devil you know,” said Yves Francois, a 55-year-old salesman from Hartland, Mich., who was eating a fast-casual Middle Eastern lunch with his friend in Oakland County, just outside of Detroit. “Do I have a problem with that? I don’t know,” he said of the criminal charges and convictions. “The timing of it seems pretty crazy when these are things that could have happened four, five, six, seven years ago and you just now bring them to light.”
He was curious whether I would ask similar questions challenging Harris supporters but said he did not mind and wished we could all have a more civil dialogue. To him, Trump’s statements alarm people and then we “take our eyes off of the stuff that’s really obvious” with the economy and the broken immigration system.
The Harris campaign is spending the closing weeks begging voters to keep their eyes on Trump’s threats to use the military against his political enemies, his attempts to overturn the last election that resulted in the Jan. 6 insurrection and the range of former high-ranking members of his national security staff who have warned that he is a threat to democracy. They are frustrated that Americans are giving his presidency a much higher approval rating in retrospect than they did when he was in office.
“We barely survived,” said Olivia Troye, a former national security official in the Trump administration who praised the actions of her former boss, Vice President Mike Pence, and others who pushed back against Trump.
Troye spoke with me on a vivid fall day in Washington Crossing, Pa., a historic park along the Delaware River, after appearing on stage with Harris and other Republicans who warned about Trump.
“When he starts talking about using the military against people, or law enforcement, I think we should take that very seriously because those discussions were had in the White House where he actually talked about shooting Americans,” Troye continued. “I was there for those. I witnessed that. No president should ever talk about shooting his own people.”
That’s scaring committed Democrats like Claudia Seldon, a retired rehab nurse who was having her Wednesday coffee meet-up with friends in a downtown Detroit cafe earlier in the day.
“I’m worried if he does win, what’s gonna happen and if he doesn’t win, what’s gonna happen,” said Seldon, who plans to leave early this year for her winter home in Nevada to avoid traveling during potential election related turmoil.
Her friends Heather Hamilton and Joan Nagrant were counting absentee ballots in 2020 at the convention center when crowds tried to interrupt the process, a foreshadowing of Jan. 6. They were sequestered but remain nervous about returning for the job this year.
Many voters are seeing Harris’ ads with Troye and others running in battleground states. But some just hear political noise. The fliers that come through the mail slot accumulate but go unread. These voters manage to avoid news about the two candidates racing back and forth through their states on a near weekly basis.
“It’s less about us and more about them,” said Daniel Santos, a 36-year-old water company employee from Racine, Wis., who voted for former President Obama and Trump and has yet to make up his mind this time.
“I will vote,” said Ana Gallo, a 36-year-old warehouse worker who was putting up Halloween decorations in front of her small house in Racine. “I gotta sit down and think about it and read a little bit about what’s going on.”
A U.S. citizen from Mexico, she has been working on her husband’s legal status for more than a decade. That will weigh heavily on her vote, as will the economy. Trump says a lot of “over the top” things but she didn’t think he governed that way when he was in office, she said. She’s still learning about Harris.
Regina Gallacher, a 58-year-old physical therapist from Rochester Hills, Mich., said she is looking for a third party candidate because Trump “really scares me” but and she doesn’t “get warm fuzzies” when she hears Harris talk and found her replacement of President Biden on the ballot “very slimy.”
Her husband, a union Democrat, is voting for Trump for the first time but they don’t talk about it at home because Gallacher, who grows repulsed when Trump appears on television, would rather avoid a heated conversation with her husband, who is unlikely to change his mind. If she has to choose between the two, it will be Harris, she said. But she is unsure.
“We’ll get through it” if Trump wins, she said. “I just won’t be happy about it.”
Just when the divisions seemed bleakest, I ran into Jim Kusters, a retiree and Trump supporter who was sitting for breakfast in Mt. Pleasant, Wis., with his two friends: a Harris voter and a former supporter of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who would not say who will now get his vote.
Kusters said his biggest problem was media bias. But it didn’t stop him from talking to a reporter or bantering with his friends. It wasn’t personal for any of them. Between taking shots at the candidates, they told stories about their families.
“We go back and forth all the time,” Kusters said.
Like just about everyone I met, they are ready for the campaign to end.
“Trump is obviously insane, and then Harris, I don’t think she has a plan,” said Clayton Ewing, a 63-year-old retiree from Shelby Township, Mich. who has voted for Trump in prior elections. Ewing said he may wait until he gets to the polls to make a final decision.
“I just hope whoever gets in, does a good job,” he said.
“We can go four years down the road and get some new characters.”
Don’t Believe The Communist Democrats (Obama’s Propaganda.) Would you like to know more about their campaign efforts or the upcoming election?
The ignorance of the left continues to amaze me.
Why would you talk about something you know nothing about. At least educate yourself so you have accurate talking points. The left just regurgitates everything the media says. These people are living a life of lies…..Ones that could land them in a communist nation.
If this happens, they will learn what hardship means. The problem is they’ve been given so much that they have no idea how much they have to lose. It’s going to be a very sad day if dancing the Harris Waltz gets into office. People are going to have a stark, fast, and cruel education on what it means to live in that kind of country.
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES
From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016.
But in 2020, 18 of these 19 “bellwether counties” voted for former President Donald Trump. Just one — Clallam County, Washington — voted for President Joe Biden.
The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020.
These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. For instance, Washington County, Maine — the median bellwether county in terms of its share that’s non-Hispanic white — is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelor’s degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide.
White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below.
Arguably, it was 2016 — and not 2020 — when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton.
In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status.
That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation.
In fact, they became even more Republican — the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Ultimately, of course, Trump’s strong performance in these counties didn’t matter because of Biden’s gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia.
But it’s not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties.
In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. As we’ve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can suddenly end thanks to America’s continually evolving political and demographic trends. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election.
The United States is composed of 3,143 counties or county equivalents. Of them, Clallam County, in northwest Washington, has the longest record of always voting for the winning presidential candidate.
Since 1980, Clallam County has voted in every presidential election for the candidate that would go on to win the White House. Since 1920, it has only voted for the losing candidate in 1968 and 1976. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will vote—bellwethers.
Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980.
Those counties were:
Warren County, Ill.
Vigo County, Ind.
Bremer County, Iowa
Washington County, Maine
Shiawassee County, Mich.
Van Buren County, Mich.
Hidalgo County, N.M.
Valencia County, N.M.
Cortland County, N.Y.
Otsego County, N.Y.
Ottawa County, Ohio
Wood County, Ohio
Essex County, Vt.
Westmoreland County, Va.
Clallam County Wash.
Juneau County, Wis.
Marquette County, Wis.
Richland County, Wis.
Sawyer County, Wis.
Until the 2020 election, Valencia County, N.M., held the record for the longest streak of selecting the winning presidential candidate, going back to 1952. ALSO, Vigo County, Ind. began selecting the winning presidential candidate in 1956. Ottawa County, Ohio, Westmoreland County, Va., Juneau County, Wis., and Sawyer County, Wis., started their streak in 1964.
Clallam County is holding municipal elections in its three cities—Port Angeles, Sequim, and Forks—in 2021. Twenty-six offices are up for election in those cities.
The 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, A recent history of presidential election bellwether counties
The concept of “pivot counties” refers to counties that have consistently voted for
the winning presidential candidate over multiple election cycles. While I couldn’t find a specific list of 19 pivot counties that have correctly picked the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, there are several well-known swing counties that have played a crucial role in recent elections.
These counties often reflect broader national trends and can be key indicators
of the overall election outcome.
Some notable examples include:
Maricopa County, Arizona
Miami-Dade County, Florida
Macomb County, Michigan
Bucks County, Pennsylvania
Waukesha County, Wisconsin
These counties have been closely watched in recent elections due to their potential to swing either way.
If you’re interested in more detailed information, you might
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris smiles during a presidential debate with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. Historian Allan Lichtman has said polls may be underestimating Democratic voting strength. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
US Election ‘Nostradamus’ says Polls Underestimating Kamala Harris Support
WASHINGTON (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris engaged in a combative first interview with Fox News on Wednesday, sparring on immigration policy and shifting policy positions while asserting that if elected, she would not represent a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Harris’ interview with Fox’s Bret Baier marked her first foray onto the network, which is popular with conservative viewers, as she looked to broaden her outreach to GOP-leaning voters with less than three weeks until Election Day. Her nearly-30-minute sit-down with Baier repeatedly grew heated, with the two talking over each other, as he pressed her on immigration and her changing policy stances since her first run for president in 2020.
Watch the explosive exclusive interview where Fox News’ Bret Baier puts Kamala Harris on the hot seat! The Vice President squirms under pressure as Baier grills her on the toughest issues facing the nation. From border control to economic policy, no topic is off-limits in this shocking exchange. You won’t want to miss this rare glimpse into the VP’s unfiltered thoughts and reactions. Tune in for the full, unedited conversation that’s got everyone talking!
Her nearly-30 minute sitdown with Baier repeatedly grew heated, with the two talking over each other, as he pressed her on immigration and her changing policy stances since her first run for president in 2020. When Baier kept talking as Harris tried to respond to his challenges on immigration, Harris told him, “May I please finish. … You have to let me finish please.”
Harris tried repeatedly to pivot the conversation to attacking Donald Trump.
But she also had plenty to say about herself. A week after saying she couldn’t think of any move made by Biden that she would have done differently, Harris asserted that “My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency.”
Harris did not offer specifics, but said, “Like every new president that comes into office, I will bring my life experiences, and my professional experiences and fresh and new ideas.” Asked to clarify her assertion that she wants to “turn the page,” though Democrats currently hold the White House, Harris said she is running on “turning the page from the last decade in which we have been burdened with the kind of rhetoric coming from Donald Trump.”
On immigration, Harris expressed regret over the deaths of women who were killed by people who were detained and then released after crossing into the U.S. illegally during the Biden administration, but she criticized Trump for his role in blocking a bipartisan immigration bill earlier this year that would have boosted border funding.
“I am so sorry for her loss, sincerely,” Harris said after Baier played footage of the mother of Jocelyn Nungaray blaming Biden and Harris for her daughter’s death. Harris indicated she no longer supports decriminalizing crossing the border illegally, as she did in 2019.
“That was five years ago and I am very clear that I will follow the law,” she said. She gave the same answer about proposals to allow those in the U.S. illegally to get driver’s licenses and subsidized healthcare. Of Trump, she said, “People are exhausted with someone who professes to be a leader and who spends full time demeaning and engaging in personal grievances.” She added, “He’s not stable.”
She also sought to focus Fox viewers on Trump’s talk of “the enemy within” and threats to punish political rivals.Baier challenged Harris over her attestations to Biden’s mental stamina after his disastrous debate with Trump in June that forced his exit from the 2024 presidential race and her elevation to the top of the ticket.
She again defended Biden, but added, “Joe Biden is not on the ballot and Donald Trump is.” Trump’s campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Harris was “angry, defensive, and once again abdicated any responsibility for the problems Americans are facing.” She added that if “Kamala can’t handle the pressure of an interview with Fox News—she certainly can’t handle the pressure of being president of the United States.”
Pushing back against Baier’s line of questioning at times, Harris at one point told her interviewer, “I would like it if we could have a conversation that is grounded in a full assessment of the facts.”
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman has suggested that polling is underestimating support for the Democratic Party and Vice President Kamala Harris. Replying to a question during one of his regular YouTube livestreams on whether reports that the Democratic Party was pulling ahead in terms of mail-in voting in some states (such as Pennsylvania, a key swing state) could be a sign they could win them, Lichtman said:
“I can’t say it proves that states would be blue, but it’s certainly a sign that it’s likely that these states would be blue,” the American University professor said. “The polls in 2016 underestimated Republican voting strength. It’s my view based on what I saw from 2022-2024 that the polls are now underestimating Democratic voting strength.”
According to FiveThirtyEight, just 2.4 points separate the candidates as of Wednesday morning. “As we saw in the special election for the congressional seat in New York held by the disgraced George Santos, the Democrat outperformed the poll right before the election by seven points.”
Santos, a former Republican representative, pleaded guilty to two charges relating to campaign fraud in August. He represented the Third Congressional District of New York. Following a special election for his seat, he was replaced by Democratic Representative Tom Suozzi, who had previously held the seat.
Lichtman added: “Even if the polls are off by a point or two, the Democrats are going to do a point or two better than the polls—they will sweep Pennsylvania.” The latest aggregation of national polls currently show Harris narrowly leading the former president in the race for the White House.
Lichtman has earned the moniker “Nostradamus” for his impressive track record predicting the outcome of presidential elections using his model—”The Keys to the White House”—though the system is not without its critics. Lichtman has already predicted that Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, based on this model.
His system hinges on 13 keys, which evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on a variety of factors, including the economy, foreign policy and domestic politics, including social unrest, major scandals and the presence of a major third-party candidate. If six or more of the 13 keys—all true/false statements—are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election.
Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.
The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are these:
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
And Kamala is an accessory to the biggest lie told to the world. Remember? The one where they all told us Joe was at the top of the game and everyone else was wrong. She was also appointed with no votes from constituents.
I can’t believe Trump tried to overthrow our government by flooding our nation with millions and millions of illegals to change the electoral votes per state as well as provide amnesty and a pathway to citizenship so they can all vote for their saviors, all while we pay to support them. Then after bringing in all the illegals, he’s supporting states making Voter ID illegal! Can you believe it?
I’m still mad at him about that! More Democrat Lies!!
Don’t fall for the propaganda from the overtly biased media.
Verifiable facts: support for Harris in national polls fell to single digits before she dropped out of the 2020 race. Her approval rating as vice president was 28%, a HISTORIC LOW for any modern vice president. After democrats could no longer pretend to support Biden, they now embrace Harris after they previously rejected her and had no say in her recent nomination.
Democrats love to say Trump is a threat to democracy. But they are apparently OK with their party’s leaders not allowing voters to choose their own candidate. These people somehow managed to live through Trump’s first term (and probably enjoyed the prosperity of those years), and now believe that THIS time he will surely destroy democracy!
The United States suffered the embarrassment of having a puppet president for the last four years. We can’t allow another one with Harris. She has hidden voters. Kind of similar to what happened with Trump in 2016, but with opposite results. Many supporters (especially men) are laying low. But they’re going to vote. On top of this, Harris is underestimated as a fighter. She was raised by a determined and intelligent mom who taught her to fight like hell. “I love a good fight,” Kamala said last week with a capable grin…Oh baby, baby we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
She is a political chameleon and she cackles afterwards like a psycho? . One need only examine her answers on various political issues in response to a 2019 ACLU questionnaire to the DNC’s presidential candidates. She has virtually turned a 180 on every single one of those answers. Why? Because it is no longer politically expedient or tenable.
She will say anything and do anything to be installed as president. But make no mistake about it, she is a mere empty suit, an avatar, who is not truly in control. Biden being forced into “retirement” within 48 hours after publicly declaring he would not budge, shows you that the true power lies outside the Oval Office, at least with DNC elected officials.
I’m not a believer in Lichtman’s “model”, per se. But he is a good analyst and, with the polling adjustments made this year to counter the Trump undercounts of 20 and 16…plus the Harris ground game, with the voter registration and early voting numbers coming in, there are definitely silent blocks favoring Harris this go-round that could end up making Trumpers, who are convinced Trump is winning, feel like normal people felt after the election of 2016.
Trump is now the favorite amongst the professional oddsmakers.
In addition to their aggregate of pollsters, Real Clear Politics runs an aggregate of seven of the top odds makers as well. Their model had the oddsmakers preferring Harris +8.8 back on 8/15. As of this afternoon the model has Trump +16.4. A +25.2 swing for Trump in two months. He’s surging and Harris has three weeks to turn it around. Do oddsmakers get it wrong sometimes?
Yes. Are they right more often than not? Absolutely.
It is true that in the Trump era polls have so far underestimated his support which should concern people who care about retaining our democracy. However, due to a number of factors unique in this election, I believe they are underestimating Harris’s support.
In particular, the unusually high numbers of undecided Republicans and African American voters. Those are two constituencies that generally “come home” to their party in large numbers. The difference this year is the number of undecided Republicans is unusually high.
My bet is because they can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump.
Many of them are likely to stay home or even vote for Harris. On the other hand, it is not unusual to have a large number of black voter’s undecided at this point and they usually come home. There is little reason to suggest that will not happen in this election especially with the existential threat posed by electing Trump again.
Odds makers absolutely are the best source for predicting an outcome as math is the only objective foundation, and opinion and bias does not serve as a handicapper. In fact, it costs them. We can tell from Harris’s scrambling and Obama’s lecturing they don’t like what they’re seeing.
What is wrong with Lichtman? Is he so damn egotist about his keys that he can’t stand the thought they are wrong and hence HE is wrong? He was supporting Biden early on and even as Biden’s polls dropped beyond hope Lichtman’s model kept saying he should win. And that tells you his model and theory only happens to have been working for many years as its missing data (it can’t account for incompetent candidates)!
For example he keeps claiming the economic figure he uses is godly and the fact people are still underwater compared to the 23% inflation over the Biden years (total inflation) doesn’t matter. And that inflation and how people still feel it in their wallets every day is playing a big part into perceptions driving the election. And he simply refuses to look into this despite inflation of this level not having an effect on any elections since the Carter years. He just refuses to adjust like any scientist would, taking their theory and model and when results do not predict out, you change it (scientific method). And that shows he is more charlatan and showman than science related.
I don’t know about this one. I know, in 2016, they certainly underestimated the support for Trump. This was partially a result of Trump’s supporters’ mistrust of polling services leading to fewer respondents than would normally be expected. Since Trump’s followers are no less wary of pollsters now (likely more so), I don’t see why the results would be skewed the other direction this time.
Using Lichtman’s 13 keys to predict the election results Trump wins. His 13 keys are True or False questions with each true favoring the incumbent party.
1. Incumbent party mandate – Joe did not have a mandate he was elected because he was not Trump and the Democrat party stole the election, the math does not add up.
2. The incumbent party has more seats in the House of Representatives – False
3. There was no serious contest for the incumbent party’s nomination. – False, there was no primary for the incumbent party’s nominee at all.
4. No significant challenge by a third party. – True
5. The incumbent party had a strong short-term economy – False wages went down and inflation went up
6. The incumbent party had a strong long-term Economy – False, it was neither particularly strong or weak.
7. The incumbent party effects major policy change – True although it had arguably negative results especially on border policy changes.
8. No Social unrest during incumbent party’s term – False College campuses taken over by pro-Palestinian demonstrators for several months and it is starting up again on some college campuses.
9. Incumbent party has no scandal during term in office. – Falsely hiding of Biden’s senility and Cocaine in the White House and Hunter’s ties to Joe being part of his influence peddling schemes are definitive scandals as well as the immigration debacle.
10. No foreign or military failure. – False (Afghanistan was a total failure and embarrassment). Joe pulled out leaving Americans behind…he actually left US citizens behind saying “you’re on your own”. Oh, and he left billions in military equipment for the Taliban
11. Major foreign or military success. – False the world is on the brink of another world war; China is threatening Taiwan and Iran will soon threaten Israel with nukes.
12. The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero. – False Harris is not a good speaker and she is not a national hero of any sort.
13. Uncharismatic challenger and is not a national hero. – Toss Up Could go either way depending on whether you believe Trump has charisma or not. However, for the sake of argument let’s just say True. In my estimation that is. But I tell everybody don’t listen to how he says it… but listen to what Trump says,
They say crime is down under Biden’s Term but don’t believe it for a second.
The FBI openly and publicly posted declining violent crime stats when it was in the news cycle and a topic at the presidential debates. Trump was “fact checked” by ABC moderators that crime actually declined from 2021 to 2022 when the issue was raised.
Now, just days ago, with the news cycle moved on to the next big thing, the FBI quietly revised its nationwide violent crime stats to show that crime did not decline but actually surged from 2021 to 2022, meaning that Trump was, in fact, correct.
According to a criminologist professor Carly Moody at William & Mary, the FBI has never issued a revision so large, and what troubled Professor Moody more was that the FBI made this revision without any explanation and quietly. If you believe this is just some type of coincidence, I got a bridge to sell you. The “deep state” is real, and it is for Harris and against Trump. That’s why no poll matters. If Trump is winning, mail in ballots for Harris will just appear. If the deep state has the power to remove a sitting president (Biden) within 48 hours after he openly declared he would not budge, it can sure as heck install Harris.
I know for sure that the legal voting Immigrants, ( who don’t do polls), that have families and roots seeded in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belorussia (now Belarus), Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirgizija (now Kyrgyzstan), Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia (now Moldova), Poland, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan are voting for Harris because they know Trump will pull out of NATO and then Putin will run wild!
“The Raven” follows an unnamed narrator on a dreary night in December who sits reading “forgotten lore” by the remains of a fire[6] as a way to forget the death of his beloved Lenore. A “tapping at [his] chamber door”[6] reveals nothing, but excites his soul to “burning”.[7] The tapping is repeated, slightly louder, and he realizes it is coming from his window. When he goes to investigate, a raven flutters into his chamber. Paying no attention to the man, the raven perches on a bust of Pallas above the door.
Amused by the raven’s comically serious disposition, the man asks that the bird tell him its name. The raven’s only answer is “Nevermore”.[7] The narrator is surprised that the raven can talk, though at this point it has said nothing further. The narrator remarks to himself that his “friend” the raven will soon fly out of his life, just as “other friends have flown before”[7] along with his previous hopes. As if answering, the raven responds again with “Nevermore”.[7] The narrator reasons that the bird learned the word “Nevermore” from some “unhappy master” and that it is the only word it knows.[7]
Even so, the narrator pulls his chair directly in front of the raven, determined to learn more about it. He thinks for a moment in silence, and his mind wanders back to his lost Lenore. He thinks the air grows denser and feels the presence of angels, and wonders if God is sending him a sign that he is to forget Lenore. The bird again replies in the negative, suggesting that he can never be free of his memories. The narrator becomes angry, calling the raven a “thing of evil” and a “prophet“.[8]
Finally, he asks the raven whether he will be reunited with Lenore in Heaven. When the raven responds with its typical “Nevermore”, he is enraged, and, calling the bird a liar, commands it to return to the “Plutonian shore”[8]—but it does not move. At the time of the poem’s narration, the raven “still is sitting”[8] on the bust of Pallas. The raven casts a shadow on the chamber floor and the despondent narrator laments that out of this shadow his soul shall be “lifted ‘nevermore'”.[8]
Project 2025, Social Security and Medicare
Since Biden dropped out and endorsed her, Harris has delivered two speeches and both times she referred to Project 2025 — a conservative plan for remaking the federal government via the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 — as Trump’s plan, even though the former president has disavowed it.
And in both speeches, Harris cited Project 2025 as evidence that Trump wants to cut Social Security and Medicare, even though the former president has offered no plans to do so.
Harris, Wilmington, Delaware, July 22: He and his extreme Project 2025 will weaken the middle class and bring us backward — please do note that — back to the failed trickle-down policies that gave huge tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations and made working families pay the cost; back to policies that put Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block; back to policies that treat health care as only a privilege for the wealthy, instead of what we all know it should be, which is a right for every American.
Harris, Milwaukee, July 23: But Donald Trump wants to take our country backward. He and his extreme Project 2025 agenda will weaken the middle class. Like, we know we got to take this seriously. And can you believe they put that thing in writing? Read it here: 2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf (project2025.org)
But here’s the thing. When you read it, you will see Donald Trump intends to cut Social Security and Medicare.
In September 2024, Trump’s campaign launched a tour called “Team Trump Agenda 47 Policy Tour” to promote Agenda 47.[11][12]
As we havesaid before, Trump says he has no plans to cut Social Security or Medicare.
In his four years as president, Trump did not propose cutting Social Security’s retirement benefits, and his budgets included bipartisan proposals to reduce the growth of Medicare without cutting benefits. (For more, see our February 2020 article “Competing Claims on Trump’s Budget and Seniors,” which details how Trump as president proposed cuts to the Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income programs, but not to retirement benefits.)
After leaving office, Trump has pledged not to cut Social Security, most recently on July 20 in his first joint campaign appearance with his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio. “We will not cut one penny from Social Security and Medicare,” Trump said in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
In January 2023, when House Republicans were discussing ways to cut government spending, Trump said in a video: “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security to help pay for Joe Biden’s reckless spending spree.”
As for Project 2025, Trump described it at his Michigan rally as “seriously extreme.” He added, “I don’t know anything about it. I don’t want to know anything about it.” Project 2025 lays out “four goals and principles” for Medicare “reform,” but there is nothing in the 900-plus page document that calls for cutting Social Security, which the authors of the project call a “myth.”
Harris and the Democrats link the project and its agenda to Trump because, as CNN has reported, there are more than 100 people involved in the project who have worked in the Trump administration. Prominent figures such as Mark Meadows, who was Trump’s chief of staff, and Stephen Miller, a top aide who was involved in setting major immigration policy, are associated with conservative groups that advised the project.
Project 2025, which mentions Trump hundreds of times, includes concepts that Trump supports, including — as Harris alluded to — cutting business taxes and rewriting the nation’s health care laws. But it also proposes things that Trump did not do when he was president, such as setting just two individual tax brackets of 15% and 30% (down from seven) and eliminating or transforming entire government agencies.
There is no telling what parts of Project 2025 Trump would implement, if elected.
But Project 2025 is not his “agenda” or “plan,” as Harris said.
As 25 Earth vital signs worsen, scientists warn of ‘irreversible climate disaster’
Story by Mongabay
Earth’s climate system continues to rapidly deteriorate, with global temperatures on track to far overshoot 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) of warming by the end of the century — a mere 75 years from now. That warning comes from an international group of eminent climate researchers and Earth System scientists who reviewed the planet’s vital signs in the journal BioScience.
“We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled,” the authors write. “The global failure to support a rapid and socially just fossil fuel phasedown has led to rapidly escalating climate-related impacts.”
“It’s very likely that climate change is making powerful hurricanes like Helene and Milton more common and devastating,” study author William Ripple, distinguished professor at Oregon State University and director of the Alliance of World Scientists, told Mongabay in an email.
“The climate crisis is becoming increasingly severe, and we are now faced with many climate-related disasters along with catastrophic risks in the longer term. We are continuing to go in the wrong direction, with enormous fossil fuel emissions and unsustainable consumption by the wealthy,” he added.
For Helen Adams, senior lecturer in Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation at King’s College London, who was not involved in the report, the science presented by the report in Bioscience is clear, though she takes issue with its tone.
“I don’t disagree with science, but for me the question is what do we gain with these doomsday narratives?” she says, adding that there is a need to strike a balance between detailing the gravity of the situation and motivating climate action. “We need to reclaim a more positive narrative that has, to an extent, been co-opted by oil and gas companies about a better future, about future possibilities.”
Arctic sea ice fragments float between two icebergs near Greenland. Researchers believe that climate change may be pushing the Greenland Ice Sheet perilously close to a tipping point. Image by Adam Sébire / Climate Visuals (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).
Earth’s deteriorating vital signs
The report authors assessed 35 planetary vital signs that indicate the current state of natural systems and human influences on them that, taken together, offer insight into how Earth’s climate is changing in response to human activities, says Milton.
That picture makes for grim reading.
The researchers note that consumption of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) grew by 1.5% in 2023, hitting an all-time high. Although renewable energy sources also grew, this is mostly attributed to increasing energy demand, with fossil fuel sources dwarfing alternatives by roughly 14 times.
Greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations continue to climb with both carbon dioxide and methane at “record highs.” Increasing methane emissions are “troubling” as methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, despite lasting only a decade in the atmosphere.
Earth surface temperatures also set new records, with 2024 on track to be the hottest on record (with 2023 setting the previous high), the report notes. Biodiversity continues to suffer with global forest loss of 28.4 mega hectares in 2023, compared to 22.8 mega hectares in 2022. Last year’s sea surface temperatures hit new heights and combined with record extremes of ocean acidity to stress marine life.
“We are concerned about recent trends in many planetary vital signs, including record-breaking greenhouse gas concentrations, tree cover loss due to wildfires and ice loss,” Ripple says. “We are especially troubled by global consumption of coal and oil reaching all-time highs in 2023.”
Coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef. “Extraordinarily warm” ocean temperatures in 2023 and 2024 are driving the fourth global-scale bleaching event, the recent climate report states. Image by The Ocean Agency/ Ocean Image Bank.
The authors also cite the results of a large scale survey of 380 climate scientists, conducted by the Guardian newspaper, 80% of whom hold the bleak view that average global temperatures will increase 2.5° C (4.5° F) by the end of the century, echoing concerns of the 2023 UN Emissions Gap Report.
Climate change-fuelling emissions are likewise driving dangerous feedback loops, and the report references 28 that have now been observed, including thawing Arctic permafrost and methane emissions from tropical wetlands. These feedbacks add to human emissions and contribute to the looming threat of climate tipping points. Five of sixteen such potentially irreversible thresholds could be crossed with an increase of just 1.5° C (2.7° F), including the eventual loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, the report warns. Earth temperatures have already increased over pre industrial levels by 1.3° C.
“Overall, this points to a complex situation where climate controlling feedback loops and tipping point systems are interconnected in a way that could trigger self-perpetuating processes that amplify warming beyond human control,” the authors write. This severe and worsening climate scenario could ultimately help trigger “societal collapse”, a possibility that the report notes is the focus of increasing research, as climate change combines with other threats in a global polycrisis.
Adams, however, pushes back on this finding.
“There isn’t the evidence to suggest that the impacts of climate change will lead to societal collapse,” she says, emphasizing that underlying drivers of inequality and social injustice must be addressed, in addition to climate change. In her view, the climate change discussion needs to be reframed around food prices, energy security, jobs, healthcare, and continuity in cultural practices to “focus on the things people care about.”
Amid the gloom there are bright spots. One of these, says Ripple, is the recent declines in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon — a critically important biome that plays a vital role in both carbon and methane cycling globally.
“From climate and biodiversity perspectives, the Amazon rainforest is one of Earth’s most important ecosystems. So, we are encouraged by the declining deforestation rate in the Brazilian Amazon,” Ripple says. “Increasing solar and wind energy consumption is also a positive trend, although fossil fuel subsidies are likely slowing the adoption of renewables.”
Hurricane Milton on October 8, 2024 from the International Space Station. Scientists were astounded by Milton’s rapid intensification from a tropical depression to a category five hurricane — intensification also seen in Hurricane Helene and an effect caused by a dangerously warming world. Image by NASA Johnson via Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0).
Nothing short of “immediate, high
, and socially just climate policies” are needed to avoid a further decline of Earth’s vital signs, says Ripple. The report authors describe a range of mitigation measures, with rapid phase down of fossil fuel use a priority.
“[R]educing methane emissions is critical,” as this greenhouse gas is responsible for an estimated 30% of current warming. Drastically cutting methane emissions could have an outsized impact on easing the climate crisis.
“In addition, the adoption of a sufficiently high global carbon price could help to dramatically reduce emissions while providing further funding for climate action,” Ripple notes.
Protecting, restoring, and rewilding ecosystems; reducing overconsumption; reforming food production; and inclusion of climate change in education curriculums are all encouraged.
The report also suggests “stabilizing and gradually reducing the human population,” by empowering education and rights for girls, a contentious and controversial viewpoint. “I would push back strongly on the population control point,” Adams says. “Unsustainable use and unequal distribution of resources are the problem, not overpopulation.”
The report authors say their aim is “to communicate directly to researchers, policymakers and the public” in order “to alert humanity to the growing threats that we face as clearly as possible and to show leadership in addressing them.”
Referring to the upcoming UN COP29 climate summit — scheduled to begin this November in Baku, Azerbaijan — Ripple says he hopes to see a binding agreement on global fossil fuel phaseout, along with a rapid timeline to kickstart climate action. “We also hope that wealthy countries will increase their climate finance pledges to better support the Global South in scaling up renewable energy capacity and adapting to climate change.”
Banner image: FWC officers assist to remove debris left by Hurricane Milton. Image by Florida Fish and Wildlife via Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0).
Citations: Ripple, W. J., Wolf, C., Gregg, J. W., Rockström, J., Mann, M. E., Oreskes, N., Lenton, T. M., Rahmstorf, S., Newsome, T. M., Xu, C., Svenning, J., Pereira, C. C., Law, B. E., & Crowther, T. W. (2024). The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on Planet Earth. BioScience. doi:10.1093/biosci/biae087
A coal mine in Newcastle, New South Wales. Credit: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg / Getty Images
An international team of scientists has warned the world is on “the brink of an irreversible climate disaster”.
Their annual report – the 2024 State of the Climate Report,published in BioScience, finds more of Earth’s vital signs are in extreme distress.
The team behind the report says that a global carbon price, renewable energy, ecosystem restoration and reductions in overconsumption are among the ways to address the emergency.
“It feels a bit like déjà vu as our report continues to confirm what scientists have been saying for decades, but also somewhat depressing as the trends we are plotting are mostly heading in the wrong direction,” report co-author Dr Thomas Newsome, an ecologist at the University of Sydney, tells Cosmos.
The report is part of an annual series. The first publication, in 2020, declared a “climate emergency” and was co-signed by 11,258 scientists from 153 countries.
“Our reports are intended to educate the public, policymakers, and researchers about the state of the climate crisis. We present the latest information on planetary vital signs, current and projected climate impacts, and policy recommendations,” lead author Professor William Ripple, an ecologist at Oregon State University, USA, tells Cosmos.
“We are motivated to publish these annual reports because Earth’s climate is changing rapidly and there are many new developments every year.”
“The paper is a very welcomed addition to the collection of annual assessments that are published by independent but very well-established groups of scientists,” says Dr Pep Canadell, a chief research scientist at CSIRO Environment and executive director of the Global Carbon Project, who wasn’t involved with the research.
“These rapid assessments are, in part, in response to the very slow cycles of updates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the fact that the key climate indicators are changing very rapidly.
“I praise most in this assessment the very up-to-date data which shows the remarkable times of change we are experiencing.”
A coal burning power plant in Poland. The recent report warns that immediate action must be taken to reduce fossil fuel emissions to avoid irreversible climate disaster. Image courtesy of Anna Liminowicz via Climate Visuals (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Reversing destabilizing global trends
This year, the report highlights the 3 hottest days in recorded history, all this July, as well as annual emissions from energy generation exceeding 40 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent for the first time in 2023.
It also points out the UN Environment Programme’s estimate that current emissions policies will warm the world by 2.7°C in 2100, compared to preindustrial levels.
This is despite 195 countries being signatories to the Paris Agreement, which pledges to keep climate change to well below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C.
“Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage,” write the researchers.
The team has tracked 35 planetary vital signs, including metrics like ocean acidity, fossil fuel subsidies, greenhouse gas emissions, population, and tree cover loss.
Of these, 25 are at record levels.
The report comes as chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Professor Jim Skea, said on the weekend that “1.5°C is slipping away from us” in an interview with the UK’s The Telegraph.
Skea emphasised the UN’s estimate of nearly 3°C by 2100, saying that even 2°C of warming was “a big ask”.
“In reviewing the state of Earth’s climate, it has become extremely clear that humanity is far off track with regard to climate action,” Ripple says.
“We are seeing a significant increase in scientific research on the topic of climate-related societal collapse. I am deeply troubled by both current climate-related disasters and such long-term catastrophic risks.”
The researchers say that the rapid phaseout of fossil fuels worldwide should be a top priority for addressing these risks, including: “a sufficiently high global carbon price that could restrain emissions by the wealthy while potentially providing funding for much-needed climate mitigation and adaptation programs”.
They also suggest that rapid cuts to methane emissions can slow heating in the short term, and drastic reductions to overconsumption and waste are necessary particularly among wealthy countries. “In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a perilous illusion,” write the researchers.
Top (L-R): Rescue of people stranded by floods in Canoas, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil, 2024; Duda Fortes, Agência RBS); “Drought in Ethiopia due to rains unrealised” (Ethiopia, 2011; Oxfam East Africa; CC BY 2.0). Bottom: Firefighters contain a bushfire burning around the town of Aberdare (Australia, 2013; Quarrie Photography, Jeff Walsh, Cass Hodge; CC BY-NC-ND 2.0); The aftermath of Hurricane Matthew (Haiti, 2016; UN Photo / Logan Abassi; CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
A new report from a team of international scientists has revealed harsh realities on Earth, with 25 of 35 planetary vital signs reaching record extremes. Without immediate action, scientists warn that these extremes could threaten life on Earth.
In the new study, published in the journal BioScience, scientists presented a stark look at the state of the climate crisis.
“We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis,” the scientists wrote.
Scientists use 35 different planetary vital signs to track the effects of climate change, including human population, global tree cover loss, meat production per capita, energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, ice mass changes, glacier thickness and more.
(John Crux Photography/Moment/Getty Images)
Almost Half of Earth’s Vital Signs Are Now ‘Code Red’, Scientists Warn
A new report from a coalition of international scientists is unequivocal about the severity of the environmental crisis that we’re in, with 16 out of the 35 ‘vital signs’ used to track climate change now rated as code red – that is, they’re at record extremes.
The number of climate-related disasters is escalating, the report warns, with related human suffering – already at levels that are difficult to quantify and imagine – set to keep on rising rapidly as well.
We’re now faced with a stark choice: make quick and meaningful changes to the way we live our lives and treat the planet, or face the very real possibility of global societal collapse further down the line.
“As we can see by the annual surges in climate disasters, we are now in the midst of a major climate crisis, with far worse to come if we keep doing things the way we’ve been doing them,” says ecologist Christopher Wolf from Oregon State University.
“We implore our fellow scientists to join us in advocating for research-based approaches to climate and environmental decision-making.”
Some of the issues that the team points towards include the increasing frequency of extreme heat events, rising global tree cover loss (with wildfires playing a major role in that), and more cases of the mosquito-borne dengue virus.
There’s also the matter of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which are now at their highest since records began: 418 parts per million. Meanwhile, 2022 is on track to be one of the hottest years on record.
Other vital signs tracked by the researchers include surface temperature anomalies, Antarctica ice mass change, ocean acidity, and major floods in the US costing at least a billion dollars to clean up.
“Climate change is not a standalone issue,” says sustainability scientist Saleemul Huq from Independent University, Bangladesh. “It is part of a larger systemic problem of ecological overshoot where human demand is exceeding the regenerative capacity of the biosphere.”
“To avoid more untold human suffering, we need to protect nature, eliminate most fossil fuel emissions and support socially just climate adaptations with a focus on low-income areas that are most vulnerable.”
Experts predict a rise of 3 degrees Celsius in terms of global warming by 2100, a temperature level that the planet hasn’t seen for some 3 million years. However, despite repeated warnings, many trends are still going in the wrong direction.
The researchers have put together a 35-minute documentary called The Scientist’s Warning to spur more action and increase awareness. They’re hoping that more and more scientists now make a stand about the urgent action that needs to be taken.
There is still hope. The researchers note an unprecedented numbers of scientists are speaking out about the climate crisis, and are calling for “massive-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation” to happen immediately for the sake of future generations.
“Look at all of these heat waves, fires, floods and massive storms,” says ecologist William Ripple, from Oregon State University. “The specter of climate change is at the door and pounding hard.”
Twenty-five of these vital signs are already breaking records, including human population, coal and oil consumption, ruminant livestock populations, U.S. heat-related deaths, carbon emissions, methane levels, fossil fuel subsidies, ocean heat content changes, ocean acidification, glacier thickness and tree cover loss, among others.
The 25 planetary vital signs that have reached record levels, as reported by researchers, include:
1 Greenhouse Gas Concentrations: Levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are at all-time highs.
2 Global Surface Temperatures: Average temperatures are increasing rapidly.
3 Ocean Heat Content: Oceans are absorbing more heat, leading to rising sea temperatures.
4 Sea Level Rise: Global sea levels are rising due to melting ice and thermal expansion.
5 Forest Loss: Deforestation rates are increasing, leading to significant tree cover loss.
6 Biodiversity Decline: Many species are facing extinction at an alarming rate.
7 Fossil Fuel Consumption: The use of fossil fuels remains high, contributing to climate change.
8 Human Population: The global population continues to grow, putting more pressure on natural resources.
9 Energy Consumption: Overall energy use is increasing, often from non-renewable sources.
10 Ocean Acidification: Increased CO2 levels are making oceans more acidic.
11 Heat-Related Mortality: Deaths related to extreme heat are rising.
12 Global GDP: Economic activities continue to grow, often at the expense of the environment.
13 Livestock Numbers: The number of livestock is increasing, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions.
14 Food Production: Intensive agriculture is impacting the environment.
15 Government-Declared Climate Emergencies: More governments are recognizing the climate crisis.
16 Wildfires: The frequency and intensity of wildfires are increasing.
17 Floods: Severe flooding events are becoming more common.
18 Droughts: Prolonged droughts are affecting more regions.
19 Glacial Melting: Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates.
20 Freshwater Availability: Access to clean freshwater is decreasing.
21 Air Quality: Pollution levels are worsening in many areas.
22 Plastic Pollution: Plastic waste is accumulating in oceans and landfills.
23 Soil Degradation: Soil quality is declining due to overuse and erosion.
24 Chemical Pollution: The use of harmful chemicals is impacting ecosystems.
25 Extreme Weather Events: The frequency and severity of extreme weather events are increasing.
These indicators highlight the urgent need for global action to address climate change and protect our planet.
What are your thoughts on how we can tackle these issues?
According to the scientists, the human population is increasing by around 200,000 people per day, while ruminant livestock populations are increasing by around 170,000 animals per day. They also found that fossil fuel consumption increased 1.5% in 2023.
A separate report, the 2024 Forest Declaration Assessment, recently confirmed a decrease in tree cover, with 6.3 million hectares of land deforested in 2023.
Although the scientists did find that renewable energy consumption increased in 2023, renewables are still not overtaking fossil fuel demand enough to limit severe impacts of climate change.
Further, scientists warned that atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations have reached record highs, the average surface temperature of the Earth is at a record high, ocean acidity has broken records, ocean heating is at an all-time high, and global sea levels are at the highest amounts ever recorded.
On the other hand, Greenland and Antarctic ice masses have reached record lows, and the average global glacier thickness is at an all-time low.
We are already seeing the devastating impacts of these vital signs hitting extremes, with a 117% increase in heat deaths in the U.S. from 1999 to 2023. Last year, areas across Asia experienced deadly heat waves that killed thousands of people, the report authors warned.
Now, the U.S. is facing two back-to-back hurricanes amid rising ocean temperatures, which have nearly doubled in the past two decades, a recent report from EU Copernicus found.
The authors of the report on the planetary vital signs are warning that governments need to take immediate actions to protect life on Earth. They have recommended actions and policies such as establishing a global carbon price, replacing fossil fuels with renewables, limiting greenhouse gas emissions, encouraging plant-based eating, protecting and restoring ecosystems, and reducing overconsumption and waste, especially by the wealthy.
“A large portion of the very fabric of life on our planet is imperiled,” said William Ripple, a professor at Oregon State University College of Forestry, which led the study. “Ecological overshoot, taking more than the Earth can safely give, has pushed the planet into climatic conditions more threatening than anything witnessed even by our prehistoric relatives. We’re already in the midst of abrupt climate upheaval, which jeopardizes life on Earth like nothing humans have ever seen.”
Key climate indicators from greenhouse gas levels to ice loss have reached record levels this year in what researchers call a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis”
A growing number of the planet’s “vital signs” have reached record levels due to climate change and other environmental threats, according to a stark report by a group of prominent researchers.
“We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster,” write William Ripple at Oregon State University and his colleagues. “This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled.”
The report is the fifth annual State of the Climate report led by Ripple in an effort to present a clear warning of what the researchers say is a crisis given the extremes measured across key climate indicators, from greenhouse gas levels to tree cover loss.
“The climate crisis isn’t a distant threat, it’s a here-and-now crisis,” says Michael Mann at the University of Pennsylvania, one of several well-known co-authors of the report, which also includes historian Naomi Oreskes, Earth scientist Tim Lenton and oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf.
The researchers assessed 35 “planetary vital signs”, including the amount of heat in the oceans and the thickness of glaciers. The vital signs also include measures of the human factors driving many of those changes, such as meat production per capita and subsidies for fossil fuels.
The 10 most recent years are the warmest years on record. This graph shows the change in global surface temperature compared to the long-term average from 1951 to 1980. Earth’s …
They keep tossing that word out! What ever happened to our Republic??
I know… It gave its last death gasp in the 1920s and then was replaced with a Democracy! And then that was replaced with an Oligarchy! And now we’re on our way of losing our Constitution to the Socialist Matrix—with the likes of the Transhuman Prophets, at the helm!
“A passionate plea. The importance of civic engagement and informed decision-making can’t be overstated” That’s a strong sentiment and reflects a perspective that many share regarding political choices and their implications for democracy. Your dedication and hard work will pave the way to success.
Keep pushing forward.
History has shown us time and again that when power concentrates in one hand, it leads to societal catastrophe. From the fall of the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany, whenever democracy weakened, dictatorships swiftly followed. “If one person alone is expected to defend democracy, how secure is that democracy?”
…the question shall be: how secure is that democracy?” It seems like it’s already eradicated given the power of lobbyists to influence the policies. Democracy is just an illusion sold to the masses. When has it ever functioned as a true representation of the people’s will?
The choice is a new Golden Age: Trump, J.D. Vance, RFK Jr, Nicole Shanahan, Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Elon Musk leading the way or a new Dark Age with Cackling Kamala Harris all the way down to the abyss.
It’s important to remember that democracy is about the power of the people, not just one individual. Every vote counts, regardless of who it’s for. Let’s focus on voting for what aligns with our values and beliefs, ensuring a strong democracy for all.
Philosophers from Plato to Montesquieu:
Have emphasized the importance of balancing power. As Montesquieu stated: “Power should be a check to power, or it will corrupt.” Today, we see how unchecked power threatens democracy everywhere. Across the globe—from Venezuela to Hungary—we witness the decline of democracy and the rise of authoritarian leaders. These leaders, instead of safeguarding democracy, manipulate it for their own interests, curtailing the people’s rights. Democracy should be upheld by the people, not by a single leader.
As Desmond Tutu once said: “If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.” Now is not the time to remain neutral—it’s time to raise our voices and defend democracy. Strong leadership isn’t just about protecting democracy; it’s about defending justice and human rights too. As the Quran reminds us: ‘Whoever saves a life, it is as if they saved all of humanity’ (Quran 5:32). Democracy is not merely a form of government; it’s the protection of human rights, justice, and freedom.
Democracy is a fragile masterpiece, and without the right leadership, it could crumble! “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing” (Edmund Burke).Now is the time to stand up!
A gov with open borders in today’s society betrays the fundamental responsibility to the American people. Remember, democracy is not only defended at the ballot box,
in everyday life!
Concerns about the direction of democracy can lead to passionate discussions about political candidates and their policies. It’s essential to consider various viewpoints and engage in dialogue about what democracy means and how it can be preserved. What aspects of Trump’s policies or approach do you think are most crucial for this debate?
Is voting for Trump truly a safeguard for democracy, or a capitulation to fear that overlooks the complexities of our political system. While it’s important to voice concerns, democracy thrives on diverse opinions and fair elections, not just supporting one candidate.
The country’s going to end up with nothing! I get the appeal of wanting someone like Elon Musk’s so-called “efficiency” to streamline things, but the government isn’t a business. You don’t get to waltz in and run it like one. You need Congress on board, you need consensus, and you need leaders willing to act in the interest of the country, even if it goes against their own interests. That’s the major issue with our government—it’s packed with people who care more about reelection and their wallets than what’s good for the nation.
Now, Kamala Harris isn’t perfect, that’s for sure. But Trump? He’s not the answer—he’s a whole new problem. Believing Trump will somehow fix the dysfunction is a fantasy. He’s only going to create more chaos, tear down what’s left of trust in the government, and leave us sifting through the wreckage. The Bolsheviks overthrew the corrupt czars, but what did they get in return?
A corrupt system that starved 30 million people to death. You can want change, but if you don’t think carefully about how that change happens, you can end up with something much worse. As Aristotle wisely put it: “Anyone can become angry—that is easy. But to be angry with the right person, to the right degree, at the right time, for the right purpose, and in the right way—that is not within everyone’s power and is not easy.”
It’s easy to be angry at the state of things right now, but letting that anger drive decisions without thinking through the consequences is how you end up burning the house down. If you want real change, you need people willing to do the hard work—speaking up, building consensus, and voting against self-interest for the betterment of the country. Voting for Trump is just trading dysfunction for disaster. What’s left in the ashes of his chaos is anyone’s guess.
I remember this pic. Abe (Japan) appears to have a good relationship with POTUS#45.
Europe is in more trouble than they want to admit. multiple layers of government, endless regulation, infighting, immigration, climate malarky…they’re balkanizing themselves. The astronomical forces will resist in full force because there’s Trillions at Stake!
President Trump is the first President ever to make me interested in trade and how the economic pieces all come together. He is the GOAT! I’m so glad I lived to see a man like him in the office. That explanation was excellent.
Under the pilfered regime of Squatter Biden, The Dollar Tree (a store where everything was $1.) inflated to the $1.25 Tree. Filled with what I call Commie Process Foods. Now, their dubious merch is even chintzier! No one seems to care…I can see this going on for yonks… Trump hasn’t forgotten what China had done to the world, by releasing the Wuhan Virus. As soon as he takes office Trump is going to drop the MOAB on the Chinese economy!
Then BRICS would do preemptive(s) economic damage control. This Xi & Vlad and company, we are talking about.
Some way, somehow…they’ll get theirs.
Rand Paul (subject matter) is already pushing for legislation so that Congress can reclaim their constitutional authority over trade. I expected higher import prices to create jobs since American products would be the cheaper alternative to imports, requiring US manufacturing jobs. If status quo’s kept and import costs fall, no job growth? Cheap prices are nice, but more income(s) to pay for things is better.
While Trump has strong supporters, the essence of democracy lies in healthy debates and ensuring everyone’s voice is heard.
And then we need to keep voting for whoever will work to preserve our constitutional republic at every election after that. Communists will just keep trying. A Constitutional Republic is a Law of the Land instead of being ruled by a MOB!!!
This is a truth that every American citizen should be aware of. Recognize reality.
This was never about the Democrats vs. the Republicans. This was always about the people vs. the globalists. Understand that the globalist agenda involves destroying the United States and turning control over to the United Nations. No more constitution. No more rights and no more elections.
All countries will be at risk, what happens in the USA actually affects all of the world.
We need a role model for governments in Europe, this role model is the American People. Democrats are ruining our democracy for power…and doing it in front of our faces in real time. Wake up America. Eventually this will not be good for anyone…
VOTE Trump
Drill Baby Drill until we build a grid that cab handle the demand:
We need to pump our own oil and stop funding our enemies’ military.
This is exactly why Trump must and will redesign the military to a peace keeping force from the bullshit we have now … to a strong, strong fighting force designed to protect the homeland. When it comes to the use of economic leverage to create U.S. national security outcomes, we are a commanding lead and an economic master player. As The Fake media will do everything, they can stop people from realizing how effective President Trump is…
Here. Bookmark this for when Trump wins. Everyone who is a pragmatic critical thinker knows that China will devalue their currency to lower the impact of exports to the USA. Beijing controls the banks and they did this before. As a result, the dollar value increases and imports cost less. The Chinese imports then enter the USA at a lower price consistent with their cost estimate as a tariff offset. China takes in a lower price, but retains access.
That’s just how it works.
The importers pay the tariff with a lowered price and a higher valued dollar. Essentially statis for the time being. Then….. EU industrial products to Chinese manufacturing plants start to contract, due to China’s aggressive cost cutting initiatives. The EU gets angry about the impact on their economy. The EU then follows the same path and devalues their central bank currency; further pressuring the dollar to an upward price.
Exports to the EU are now more expensive, and imports from the EU to the USA are now cheaper. Again, the EU goal is statis. Both scenarios create cheaper USA imports despite the tariffs. However, on the EU side Trump then ends the Marshall plan and executes “tariff reciprocity” against the EU. More frustration and gritted teeth by Brussels.
[NOTE: Avoiding this squeeze also explains why U.K PM Starmer was all snuggly to Trump at Trump Tower a few weeks ago – he’s hedging.] Exports from the USA ultimately cost more because the dollar is stronger against EU and Asia currencies.
However, a stronger dollar is an offset to BRICS leverage and allows Trump to play economic chess. Trump uses part of the tariff income to underwrite agriculture exports, but… here we have fun… if agriculture exports are impacted, domestic foodstuffs drop in price. Into this dynamic Trump turns to Mexico. We have a strong dollar, all those Western Union transfers to Mexico are more valuable. Leverage is created:
The economic situation then overlays the secure border dynamic and if Mexico wants to retain trade access within the USMCA agreement, the part that no one discussed comes into play.
(1) DogeDesigner on X: “”If we don’t vote for Trump, I think we’re at a serious risk of losing our democracy.” https://t.co/iAtCWCT9fT” / X Unbeknownst to all those except those who watched Robert Lighthizer do it, the USA has first right of refusal to any trade agreement made by Mexico or Canada. That’s correct, Trump now controls a veto on trade agreements within USMCA partnered countries. Suddenly Xi Jinping is vulnerable in Mexico if Trump nixes the EV production. Beijing is financially exposed and vulnerable. Big Panda is not happy. How do we know this will happen? Good question. Answer: #1) This is what Trump did in 2017. #2) Because he said this is what he is going to do.
Now couple this with energy abundance domestically and the threat of tanking global energy prices by supplying through cheap exports and you not only get EU and overseas business but also decouple EU dependence from Russian gas. So, you hit Russia two ways- by reducing gas revenues by threatening credibly of reducing price per MMBTU or by cutting off their demand from the EU. Economic strength as the foundation of leveraging foreign policy. – Search Videos (bing.com)
Illegal immigration is costing taxpayers billions!
Yet Democrats shout “open borders” with no regard for the burden it puts on American families and states. How’s that for insanity, young man? When will they stop turning a blind eye? Time to put America first and protect our communities. Let’s stop the madness and fix this mess.
Total: $97.9 billion !Think of all of the school programs that could have been funded Aging bridges replaced Roads resurfaced Veterans housed Cancer patients treatments paid for Homeless people housed and retrained for the workforce
Imagine if this was spent on education, infrastructure, veteran services,
social services, public safety, or economic development…
Add up all of that, plus all of the money we are sending to other countries. Can you imagine what each state could have done with that money?! Meanwhile we have homeless vets and people without food.
And this is why our property taxes went up over 50% in Illinois
Why does our government hate us?
Imagine what these BILLIONS could do for veterans, survivors of hurricanes, or just for healthcare, infrastructure for citizens….
No one voted for this….The dollar figures disclose the state governments that are heavily involved in the plan!
Is this counting how much it costs to keep foreign felons incarcerated?
It’s your money, America! “The government” doesn’t generate money, they take it from YOUR PAYCHECK. Did you want to spend your hard earned money this way??
California is the model to observe. Go to any SoCal town the first week of the month and visit shopping centers, banks, restaurants. I could try to describe it in detail, seeing it is the only way. Go to banks, stores, restaurants and parks and recreation areas. See who has ample money to spend while everything they have is new. Big vehicles, all have cell phones, everyone in new clothes, shoes, hats etc. with bags of new stuff. Every month.
Do you know how much a board-and-care costs for the elderly who are legal citizens and have paid taxes all their lives? And it is all out of pocket. Medicare does not cover a penny of it. Our government has NO MONEY FOR THEM!
TOTALLY Unacceptable for illegal immigrant invaders replacing American citizens, when there is natural born citizens homeless in the street, lack of their medical care, education of citizens children with negative learning effects and the cost of living rising for everything and anything American CITIZENS need …. etc. etc. etc. !!!
Me and my family in NY are a perfect example of American citizens going without. We are struggling and hit rock bottom. Car is broke down. Lost a job. Got behind and now looking at eviction before winter. Went to the state for help and they are giving us $883 a month for rent and bills/
This is not sustainable.
#Kamala, that would have been a lot of fixed and new bridges, roads, high-speed trains, schools, people out of tents, rehabilitation facilities. Instead, you turned America into the third world and now ask what can only be described as schmucks to vote for you.
After Trump is back in office, we must start with those illegals who have committed heinous crimes and continue from there. Deportation is the only way…Never was. Those who permitted this are globalists bent on destroying America. Trump to the rescue.
Wake up American voters. We can take our country back.
Harmeet Dhillon @pnjabanis underrated patriot. I’m glad Tucker had her on!
She’s been groomed by identity politics since before she registered to vote at age 29. Harmeet Dhillon is a San Francisco lawyer who’s known Kamala Harris for more than 20 years.
Don’t forget Harmeet is doing this interview just months after the death of her beloved husband, and weeks after the death of her dad, whom she adored. She’s held corrupt Democrats accountable for many years now and won countless big cases.
Kamala Harris is a criminal for what she’s done to America. Specifically, for inviting 20 million illegals to invade our country. Kamala has committed treason. These are just SNIPPETS of this 2hr long interview with Harmeet Dhillon @pnjaban and Tucker.
These snippets only cover the first hour of the interview.
Exposes Kamala Harris for who she really is a Heartless Beyotch: 1) Kamala didn’t even register to vote until she was 29. Former colleague of Kamala (practicing lawyer of 30 yrs) brings receipts in a Tucker Carlson interview. HIGHLY suggest you watch in its entirety — her entire resume unravels. Link to interview is in post if you scroll down
2) Kamala cheated campaign finance laws in California in her first race. She signed paperwork at a cap of money to be raised, and well she fell behind, TRIPLED the amount she was allowed to legally raise.
3) Kamala touts supporting the 2nd amendment, yet is/was notoriously harder on actual lawful gun owners (typically acting in self defense), than she was on illegal criminals committing murder (due to her sanctuary laws).
4) A lab, in which evidence was tested for thousands of cases was shown to be compromised. Kamala sat on this information that could have exonerated THOUSANDS, for THREE MONTHS, until a judge torched her office and had 1,400 cases dismissed. She was also notorious for civil rights violations for those not in “The Club”…
5) Kamala’s election to Attorney General of California was NOT a slam dunk win. In CA, voting starts 1 month out, and it’s illegal to ask for ID for voting. The eve of the Election, her competition had a comfortable lead — and it wasn’t until WEEKS after, she won by 2,000 +\- votes in a state of almost 40,000,000 voters
6) Notable “Fun Facts from the Interview” •Did NOT pass the Bar Exam on her first try •Has never been given a VIOLENT CRIME OR MURDER case to prosecute. •Kamala has never worked in the private sector. Every job she’s had within the “lawyer realm” was paid for by taxpayers •Willie Brown appointed Kamala to specific jobs, each giving her an additional $200K income, and also gifted her a BMW, while Mayor.
7) Kamala was the first person to PROSECUTE a journalist (whose case has been in limbo for the past SEVEN YEARS) over Free Speech. He utilized recordings in public spaces to ‘out’ the selling of fetal parts from organizations like Planned Parenthood. None of the organizations who’ve been exposed to selling parts has been investigated or charged.
Here are the details: (0:43) Who Really Is Kamala Harris? (2:41) Kamala and Willie Brown (22:17) How Does Kamala Pronounce Her Name? (32:23) Kamala’s Crimes (45:03) How Has Kamala Changed? (47:44) Corporate Media Covering for Kamala’s Gaffes (49:46) Kamala Protecting Criminals (1:06:11) What Kind of Attorney General Was Kamala? (1:09:10) Kamala’s Hatred for the Pro-Life Movement and Free Speech (1:18:14) Who Is Kamala’s Husband Doug Emhoff? (1:30:47) Kamala’s “Minority” Status (1:39:03) Voters Don’t Like Kamala (1:44:59) What Happens If Kamala Wins?
Kamala Harris is also literally an illegal alien. Parents arrived on student visas, which don’t have permanently domiciled status. That’s a requirement of the citizenship category SCOTUS created out of whole cloth in Ark v US. – Search (bing.com)
The OBummer’s, Clinton’s, Corrupt TRAITOR Brandon’s, Kommie Kamala with Pelosi and Schumer have all committed Treason. Hence architects of intentional Globalization through open border policies. However, We the People aren’t supposed to notice the regular gaslighting from the White House.
While the Bible makes it clear that no one knows when the world will end, it also says there will be signs that Jesus’ return is approaching. Read this article to learn the six biblical signs of the end times.
The Bible presents a certain paradox when it comes to the end times. On one hand, we have Mark 13: 32, which tells us “But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.” So the angels in heaven don’t know when the end is coming. Not even Jesus, Himself, knows when He’s coming back, it seems.
Yet in Matthew 24: 5-8, Christ says, of the impending end of all things, that “For many will come in my name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and they will lead many astray. And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you dare not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are but the beginning of the birth pains.”
So we’re told that we cannot know when the end will come, yet we are given definitive signs that foretell its coming.
How can we make sense of this?
One way in which these signs can be useful is if we, instead of trying to predict the end through them, simply take them as hope-filled reminders that Christ is going to return and redeem all of creation.
In this way, when we see these events transpiring, we can find hope instead of fear as we prepare ourselves to weather the storm. To help you see these events for what they are, let’s take a look at 6 Biblical signs of the end times.
Nation Against Nation
In Matthew 24:7, Christ gives us one of the signs, saying that, “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.”
Since war has been raging ever since the Biblical Fall, we have to assume that this means something more—something far more destructive or significant than what we’ve yet seen. And knowing what we’ve already been through—things like WWII—it is difficult to imagine anything worse.
We may very well be about to enter this troublesome age. However, with world tensions again growing taut, and with most every country now possessing the most powerful weapons in history, this sign may be fast approaching.
Consider North Korea, and its boasts of nuclear retaliation. Think of Russia’s growing tension with the United States. Think of the myriad conflicts in the Middle East. And don’t forget that China, one of the world’s superpowers, is growing increasingly hostile with the West. With all that’s going on, we can’t help but be reminded of Christ’s return.
False Prophets
In Matthew 24:24, Jesus warns of another sign, saying “For false christs and false prophets will arise and perform great signs and wonders, so as to lead astray, if possible, even the elect.”
These “false christs” will look like the real deal—they’ll preach like a Christian, be charismatic, and draw in many, many followers.
Those followers will sincerely believe that, in following these people, they are doing the work of God.
But in reality, these false prophets are not of God at all. Their messages will be subtly corrupt. They’ll even perform miracles. This brings to mind many corrupt religious leaders.
But there is a way we can discern who is true from who is false—Christ, in John 14:21, says “Whoever has my commands and obeys them, he is the one who loves me. He who loves me will be loved by my Father, and I too will love him and show myself to him.”
If we steep ourselves in the study of Christ’s life, we can plainly point out those who are not like Him. So study up, and be prepared for the false prophets.
In 2 Timothy 3:1-4, Paul writes of a sign: “But understand this, that in the last days there will come times of difficulty. For people will be lovers of self, lovers of money, proud, arrogant, abusive, disobedient to their parents, ungrateful, unholy, heartless, unappeasable, slanderous, without self-control, brutal, not loving good, treacherous, reckless, swollen with conceit, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God.”
Again, since human beings have always been all of these things, we must assume that these traits will occur at an unprecedented level—more brutal, more heartless, and more greedy and proud than ever. The fall from God-inspired morality to relativity is a mark of the postmodern age.
Ours is a society that has become suspicious of anything labeled “truth,” and this may very well be the beginning of this sign. Moral relativism allows for the creation of personal codes of morality, of personal interpretations of truth—everything is up to the individual. This may eventually allow for the extreme behaviors listed in this sign. Remember the fruits of the spirit— love, joy, peace, forbearance, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness and self-control. Live by these, and you’ll avoid the trap of moral decay that so many are destined to fall into. In my continuing research on critical realism, I discovered a lecture by Steve Ash at the Centre for Critical Realism in which he presents the core concepts of his book, “Explaining Morality.” Contrary to popular theory, Ash presents a strong case for a universal, objective moral value within social morals that can be verified using a critical realism paradigm.
Signs in the Stars: space-stars-inspirational
In Luke 21:25-26, Christ speaks of the sky, saying, “And there will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth distress of nations in perplexity because of the roaring of the sea and the waves, people fainting with fear and with foreboding of what is coming on the world. For the powers of the heavens will be shaken.”
This is an interesting one, and appears in several places in the Gospels. Some of the other verses speak of “roaring” in the heavens, as well as some kind of trouble in the seas.
One thing that’s certain—this sign will not be one to be missed.
It’s possible that this sign is simply speaking of human weaponry—satellite-based defenses capable of firing on the planet, missiles and bombs that streak down from the sky, and whatever other objects of destruction the human mind will contrive in the coming years.
Alternatively, this could, as we see in Matthew 24:29-32, be the great sign that accompanies Christ’s return.
The Great Tribulation is a bit of a contentious sign. Some interpret surrounding scripture to mean that believers will be taken up into heaven and spared this difficult time. Others believe that they will not be taken up until after.
Of this time, Christ says that “For then there will be a Great Tribulation, such as has not occurred since the beginning of the world until now, nor ever shall.” This Tribulation will be set off by an action of the Antichrist and conclude with the coming of the true Christ.
The Book of Revelation gives us a few details about what this time period will entail: God’s wrath will be on the earth, the Beast will be revealed, and plagues and suffering will occur throughout the earth.
It may be that this Tribulation is the combined effect of all the other signs—a world torn by war, inhumanity, natural disasters, and heavenly disturbances would certainly qualify as a “tribulation.” Whatever the case, and whatever you believe about this troubling time, keep your eyes open for it, and make sure your heart is prepared for the coming of Christ.
Earthquakes play a big role in Biblical prophecy. In Matthew 24:6-7, Christ says that “there will be famines and earthquakes in various places” when the time is near for His return.
Notice the “various places.” We cannot point to every earthquake that happens and think the end is coming—this sign is something different, something more widespread.
Like many of the signs, this will be something we’re familiar with, but greatly intensified—these won’t be just any old earthquakes, but something that rocks the very foundations of the earth, and so do in many places at once.
These quakes are mentioned five times in the Book of Revelation, with the final earthquake corresponding with the seventh bowl of God’s wrath being poured out on the earth. This is described as “a great earthquake, such a mighty and great earthquake that had not occurred since men were on the earth. Now the great city was divided into three parts, and the cities of the nations fell.”
This is another sign that will be difficult to miss but take care to interpret it correctly. These signs are merely the “birth pains” of Christ’s return, as Christ, Himself, says. Even in these frightening times, there is hope for a better world. Humanity’s future depends on our ability to live in harmony with nature (msn.com)
Millions of people in the southeastern U.S. still are reeling from the catastrophic damage caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, but scientists warn that the Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. “As far as hurricane landfalls in the U.S., it’s been crazy busy,” said Jeff Masters, meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. So far five hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. — and the record is six.
Masters said it’s possible that record will be matched since tropical cyclone activity is expected to be above-average for the rest of October and November. Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30 and peaks from mid-August to mid-October due to warm ocean waters. Masters said the very active period will continue into November because of favorable upper level winds in the atmosphere as well as ocean temperatures remaining at record-high temperatures.
“I think probably two or three more named storms by the first week of November is a good bet with at least one of those being a hurricane,” said Masters. “The Gulf (of Mexico) remains fairly anomalously warm even at this point in the year, so we shouldn’t relax,” said Chris Horvat, assistant professor of earth, environment and planetary science at Brown University.
Warm ocean waters at 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.6 Celsius) or higher fuel hurricanes, but other factors needed for hurricane formation, such as favorable upper level winds, will eventually cap when these monster storms can form. “The Caribbean is warm enough year-round to get hurricanes, but it’s the strong upper level winds that prevent it from happening in the winter,” said Masters.
Staying prepared through the latter part of hurricane season is essential. “Because of climate change making the oceans warmer, we should expect to see more high-end hurricanes and we should expect to also see them later in the season,” he said.
Prepare, Don’t Despair: Cross on bridge
Christ tells us the importance of the signs when He says, “From the fig tree learn its lesson: as soon as its branch becomes tender and puts out its leaves, you know that summer is near.”
That’s it. That’s the essence of why we’ve been made aware of the signs—so that we might know that Christ is near and take heart, and so that we might also prepare ourselves. So, keep an eye out for these 6 major Biblical signs of Christ’s return—you might just be able to see a few already.
CNN — Nearly 1 in 5 new cancer cases among adults ages 30 and older in the US in 2019 could be attributed to smoking, according to a new study. About 40% of new cancer cases among adults ages 30 and older in the United States — and nearly half of deaths — could be attributed to preventable risk factors, according to a new study from the American Cancer Society.
“These are things that people can practically change how they live every single day to reduce their risk of cancer,” said Dr. Arif Kamal, chief patient officer with the American Cancer Society.
Smoking was the leading risk factor by far, the study found, contributing to nearly 1 in 5 cancer cases and nearly a third of cancer deaths. Other key risk factors included excess body weight, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, diet and infections such as HPV.
Overall, researchers analyzed 18 modifiable risk factors across 30 types of cancer. In 2019, these lifestyle factors were linked to more than 700,000 new cancer cases and more than 262,000 deaths, the study found.
Cancer grows because of DNA damage or because it has a fuel source, Kamal said. Other things — such as genetics or environmental factors — can also create these biological conditions, but modifiable risks explain a significantly larger share of cancer cases and deaths than any other known factors. Exposure to sunlight can damage DNA and lead to skin cancer, for example, while fat cells produce hormones that can feed certain cancers.
“With cancer, it often feels like you have no control,” Kamal said.
“People think about bad luck or bad genetics, but people need to feel a sense of control and agency.” Certain cancers are more preventable than others, the new study suggests.
There were 10 types of cancer where modifiable risk factors could be attributed to at least 80% of new cases, including more than 90% of melanoma cases linked to ultraviolet radiation and nearly all cases of cervical cancer linked to HPV infection, which can be prevented with a vaccine.
Lung cancer had the largest number of cases attributable to modifiable risk factors — more than 104,000 cases among men and 97,000 among women — and the vast majority were linked to smoking.
After smoking, excess body weight was the second largest contributor to cancer cases, linked to about 5% of new cases in men and nearly 11% of cases in women. It was associated with more than a third of deaths from cancer of the endometrium, gallbladder, esophagus, liver and kidney, the new study found.
Another recent study found that the risk for certain cancers was significantly reduced for people taking popular weight-loss and diabetes medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy.
“Obesity is emerging, in some ways, as just as potent of a risk for people as smoking is,” said Dr. Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. He was not involved in the new study, but has prior experience working on cancer prevention initiatives.
Intervening on a set of “core behavioral risk factors” — quitting smoking, eating well and exercising, for example — can make a “dramatic difference in the rates and outcomes of chronic diseases,” Plescia said. And cancer is one of those chronic diseases, just like heart disease or diabetes.
Policymakers and health officials should work to “create environments where it’s easier for people, where the healthy choice is the easy choice,” he said. And it’s particularly important for people who are living in historically disadvantaged neighborhoods, where it might not be safe to exercise or easy to get to a store with healthy food.
As rates of early-onset cancer rise in the US, it’s especially important to create healthy habits early, experts say. It’s harder to quit smoking once you’ve started or lose weight that you’ve gained.
But “it’s never too late to make these changes,” Plescia said. “Turning (health behaviors) around later in life can make a profound difference.”
And making lifestyle changes to minimize exposure to certain factors can reduce cancer risk relatively quickly, experts say.
“Cancer is something your body fights every single day as your cells divide,” Kamal said. “It’s a risk that you face every day, and that also means that the reduction of the risks can benefit you every day as well.”
There’s new evidence of the health benefits of avoiding smoking, excessive drinking and being dangerously overweight: they are the leading preventable causes of cancer in adults, a new study found.
An American Cancer Society study published this week estimates 40% of new cancer cases or 44% of cancer deaths in people 30 and over could be avoided if people cut out high-risk behaviors, such as smoking and drinking. Experts say the study provides fresh evidence for public health leaders to encourage people to adopt healthy lifestyles to reduce the risk of cancer and ample evidence that people should take action to prevent it.
The American Cancer Society study examined cancer cases and deaths that could have been prevented through behavior and diet changes or vaccines for HPV and hepatitis B, which reduce the risk of cancer-causing infections.
Behaviors that can raise cancer risk include smoking, exposure to second-hand smoke, drinking alcohol and being overweight. Consumption of too much red meat or processed meat and diets short on fruits and vegetables, dietary fiber or calcium also increase the odds of getting cancer. The study cited cancer risk from infections such as hepatitis B, Epstein-Barr virus, HIV, human papillomavirus and Kaposi sarcoma herpes virus.
To illustrate how cigarette smoking is still an issue in today’s society, about 160 students from Chillicothe High School’s … The Keys to Success program spent an hour Wednesday morning at Yoctangee Park picking up cigarette butts and replacing them with orange flag markers to help build momentum for the Great American Smoke out in November, which is sponsored by the American Cancer Society.
Experts not involved in the population-level study said it’s an important reminder for public health agencies and decision makers to adopt policies to encourage healthy behaviors.
The findings amount to “a big opportunity for our country – really every country – to reduce cancer incidence and mortality by being more proactive in prioritizing prevention at a personal level and at a societal level,” said Ernest Hawk, vice president and head of cancer prevention and population sciences at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center.
Hawk said the purpose of a study like this is not to shame individuals who smoke or drink or engage in other high-risk behavior, but rather to inform and educate. “It’s hard to change one’s lifestyle immediately or consistently over time,” Hawk said. The goal is to help orient people “toward helpful behaviors and helpful policies that can assist them in making that choice easier.”
The study estimated that, in 2019, 40% of the nearly 1.8 million cancers in adults 30 and older were attributable to “potentially modifiable risk factors.” It examined 30 types of cancer and excluded non-melanoma skin cancers.
The causes of cancer the study said were preventable broke down like this:
∎ Cigarette smoking was the top risk factor, accounting for 19.3% of cases.
∎ Excess body weight was a risk factor in 7.6% of cases.
∎ Alcohol consumption was linked to 5.4% of cases.
Lung cancer had the largest number of cases tied to preventable risk factors assessed by researchers. The study found 104,410 preventable lung cancers in men and 97,250 in women. The next most common preventable cancer included 50,570 cases of skin melanoma and 44,310 colorectal cancers.
“Despite considerable declines in smoking prevalence during the past few decades, the number of lung cancer deaths attributable to cigarette smoking in the United States is alarming,” said said Farad Islami, the American Cancer Society’s senior scientific director of cancer disparity research and the study’s lead author.
Islami added the study shows the need for tobacco control policies in every state that encourage people to quit smoking. He also cited the need for early detection of lung cancer.
American Cancer Society officials also stressed the importance of vaccines for hepatitis B and human papillomavirus, or HPV. Hepatitis B causes liver cancer and HPV can lead to multiple types of cancer, including cervical, anal and genital cancers and cancer of the mouth and throat.
Earlier this year, the American Cancer Society projected U.S. cancer cases would eclipse 2 million for the first time this year. However, the report said lower smoking rates, earlier detection and improved treatments have lowered death rates over the past three decades.
Environmental scientists play a crucial role in addressing the world’s most pressing environmental challenges. Their research and innovations help protect ecosystems, combat climate change, and promote sustainability. By making significant contributions in various fields, these scientists are shaping a healthier, more resilient planet for future generations.
21 Environmental Scientists Making a Global Impact
Jane Goodall is one of the most well-known environmental scientists and conservationists, celebrated for her groundbreaking work with chimpanzees in Tanzania. Her detailed research on primates has changed how we understand animals and their behavior. Through the Jane Goodall Institute, she continues to promote animal welfare, environmental conservation, and human-animal connections. Her focus on sustainability and ecosystem protection has made her a global advocate for nature preservation.
David Suzuki, a geneticist and environmental activist from Canada, has spent decades advocating for environmental issues. As the co-founder of the David Suzuki Foundation, he has been a leading voice in the fight against climate change, the protection of biodiversity, and the promotion of clean energy. His work on linking science with environmental policy has been instrumental in shaping sustainable practices in Canada and beyond.
Wangari Maathai was a Kenyan environmental and political activist who founded the Green Belt Movement, an organization dedicated to environmental conservation and women’s rights. She was the first African woman to receive the Nobel Peace Prize in 2004 for her efforts in promoting sustainable development, democracy, and peace. Her tree-planting campaigns helped combat deforestation and desertification, improving both the environment and the livelihoods of local communities.
Rachel Carson, an American marine biologist, is credited with launching the modern environmental movement through her influential book, Silent Spring. Her research highlighted the dangers of chemical pesticides like DDT and their adverse effects on ecosystems. Her advocacy led to policy changes and increased awareness of environmental hazards, particularly in regard to human health and the protection of wildlife.
His theory on island biogeography, which explains the distribution of species in isolated ecosystems, has been foundational for conservation biology. Wilson advocates for the preservation of global biodiversity, and his work has inspired efforts to protect habitats for endangered species.
She has spent decades exploring the world’s oceans, advocating for the protection of marine ecosystems. Through Mission Blue, her nonprofit organization, she aims to protect ocean habitats and create marine protected areas, known as Hope Spots, around the world. Her work emphasizes the critical importance of healthy oceans to the planet’s overall health.
James Hansen, a climate scientist and former NASA researcher, is known for his work in the study of global warming. Hansen was one of the first scientists to bring public attention to the dangers of human-caused climate change in the 1980s. His continued efforts in climate modeling and advocacy for reducing carbon emissions have made him a leading figure in the fight against global warming.
Vandana Shiva, an Indian environmental activist and food sovereignty advocate, has worked tirelessly to protect biodiversity and promote sustainable agriculture. Through her organization, Navdanya, she promotes organic farming, seed saving, and indigenous knowledge systems. Shiva has been a strong opponent of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and corporate control over agriculture, advocating for environmentally responsible farming practices.
Paul Hawken is an environmentalist, entrepreneur, and author focused on climate change solutions. His book Drawdown outlines 100 ways to reverse global warming, with a focus on sustainable practices and renewable energy solutions. Hawken’s work offers a practical and hopeful vision for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate impacts, making him a respected thought leader in the field.
Amory Lovins is an American physicist and co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, an organization focused on energy efficiency and sustainable solutions. Lovins has been a leading voice in the push for renewable energy, emphasizing the economic and environmental benefits of transitioning away from fossil fuels. His work in sustainable architecture and energy-efficient technologies has had a profound impact on environmental science and green energy initiatives.
Indian environmentalist and director of the Centre for Science and Environment, Sunita Narain has been a key figure in advocating for climate justice, water conservation, and air quality improvement in India. She has been instrumental in shaping environmental policy, particularly in developing countries, ensuring that sustainable development practices are adopted at the local and national levels.
Naomi Klein journalist and environmental activist known for her work on climate change and social justice. Her book This Changes Everything argues that addressing climate change requires systemic changes to the global economy. Klein advocacy for climate action has highlighted the links between environmental degradation, corporate power, and inequality.
When public and private sectors combine intellectual and other resources, more can be achieved.
Gro Harlem Brundtland, a former Norwegian Prime Minister and environmental leader, chaired the World Commission on Environment and Development, which produced the influential Brundtland Report. The report introduced the concept of sustainable development, defining it as development that meets present needs without compromising future generations. Brundtland’s leadership has had a lasting impact on international environmental policies.
Bill McKibben is an environmentalist, author, and co-founder of 350.org, a global grassroots movement aiming to reduce carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. His writing and activism focus on the need for urgent action to address climate change. McKibbens work has helped shape public discourse on renewable energy, divestment from fossil fuels, and global climate policy.
Known as The Planetwalker, John Francis stopped speaking for 17 years and walked across the United States to raise awareness about environmental issues. His commitment to non-motorized travel and sustainability has inspired many to rethink their relationship with nature. Today, Francis is an educator and advocate for environmental stewardship and sustainable living.
Norman Myers is a British environmental scientist recognized for his work on biodiversity hotspots. His research identified regions of the world with high biodiversity under threat, shaping global conservation priorities. Myers work has led to the protection of numerous ecosystems and endangered species, making him a vital figure in global biodiversity conservation.
Designated hotspot areas around the World (Myers et al., 2000).
Biodiversity loss, which is the most important point that is discussed in the popular and political arena, is classified into two groups that involve endangered species and vulnerable species. Endangered species are under threat of extinction in all or most of their distributions. Species that are predicted to be under threat in the future in all or most of their distributions are vulnerable species (Campbell and Reece, 2008).
There is a positive relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (Loreau et al., 2001). Areas with high biodiversity are more resilient to environmental changes such as global climate change and better to invasive species that is one of the important ecological problems today. Loss of biodiversity makes ecosystems more sensitive (less resilient) to environmental conditions such as drought (Naeem et al., 1999). More species with different characteristics or individuals with different characteristics in a population provides a potential for ecosystem to tolerate environmental fluctuations
One academic has stated that “my understanding is that Norman Myers looked at a map of the world, and he said which are the hotspots that we think are going to be affected by climate change; then he looked up the projected populations for those areas in 2010 and 2050 and added them up…. That’s how he got to such a figure, because he didn’t take into account that some people wouldn’t move.” Populations continue to rise in many regions, with one effect being attempts at migration. Other estimates place the number of climate refugees in the tens of thousands.
Michael Mann, a climatologist and geophysicist, is well known for his work on the hockey stick and climate war, which shows the sharp rise in global temperatures due to human activity. His research on climate change has contributed to the understanding of how human actions are influencing the planet’s climate, and he remains a strong advocate for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
George Monbiot ’s Regenesis takes as its subject no less than the entire world’s food production system and dares to imagine a world largely free of farming as we have known it.
George Monbiot is an environmental writer and activist who has used his platform to campaign for rewilding, biodiversity conservation, and climate action. His books and articles challenge conventional views on land use, and he advocates for restoring natural ecosystems to fight climate change and restore biodiversity.
Joan Martinez-Alier, an ecological economist, is known for his work on environmental justice, focusing on the intersection of economics, development, and environmental degradation. He has championed the concept of ecological debt and emphasized the need for equitable resource distribution and sustainable economic practices.
Tim Flannery, an Australian paleontologist and environmentalist, has been a leading voice on climate change and biodiversity conservation. His books, including The Weather Makers, focus on the scientific evidence behind climate change and advocate for urgent global action.
Christiana Figueres is a Costa Rican diplomat and former Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). She played a critical role in the Paris Agreement, the most significant international effort to combat climate change. Figueres continues to advocate for global cooperation in addressing environmental challenges, promoting climate resilience and sustainability.
“Will We Remain Silent as Our Republic Falls?” 
