Trump’s margins of victory in seven swing states were significantly larger than the closest states in the 2020 Trump-Biden race and every other close presidential contest this century [Evan Vucci/AP]
How Big was Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory?
Donald Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election. In fact, Trump this year became only the second Republican to win the popular vote since 1988. The vast majority of counties saw their margins shift in Trump’s direction, both in places where Republicans historically do well and places where Democrats generally have an edge.
At the same time, Trump’s margins – both in raw votes and percentages – were small by historical standards, even for the past quarter century, when close elections have been the rule, including the 2000 Florida recount election and Trump’s previous two races in 2016 and 2020.
Trump’s victory came without a big boost for down-ballot Republicans. The current narrow margin in the House of Representatives is poised to remain, and Democrats won four Senate races in key battleground states even as Vice President Kamala Harris lost those states to Trump.
During his election night victory party, Trump declared that “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
“Inflation, immigration, some evidence of backlash against Democrats on identity politics, crime, education, and a public mood moving in a conservative direction all suggested a Republican win,” he said.
Still, “I’m inclined to view it as a close election in which there was enough anti-Democratic sentiment to carry the day.”
Here’s how Trump’s victory sizes up against other recent presidential elections:
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Reasons for Trump to call it a big victory
Trump won all seven of this year’s battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris, by contrast, fared worse in these states than President Joe Biden did four years earlier.
Trump’s margins of victory in those seven states were wider – easily – than the margins of the seven closest states in the 2020 Trump-Biden election, and every close presidential contest this century.
Including votes counted through November 19, Trump’s collective margin in this year’s seven battleground states was about 760,000. By comparison, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore – which the Supreme Court decided after a weeklong Florida recount – produced collective margins of about 46,000 in the seven closest states, or about one-sixteenth as much as in 2024.
Trump also performed well by historical standards for someone running against the White House-occupying party. Going back to 1932, only six other candidates from the out-of-power party have taken as large a share of the vote as Trump’s nearly 50 percent. The others notching a higher percentage were Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980, Barack Obama in 2008 and Biden in 2020.
Trump’s margin of victory in the Electoral College – 312 out of 538 – was nowhere near the landslide wins of Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972 or Reagan in 1984. But it was bigger than four of the seven elections this century, including Biden’s four years earlier.
Where Trump’s victory looks historically small
Other metrics, however, show Trump’s victory was narrow.
Measured both by vote percentages and raw votes, Trump’s margin of victory is modest, even compared with this century’s other close elections.
For votes counted through November 20, Trump’s margin over Harris was 1.62 percent. That’s smaller than any winner since Bush in 2000, when the margin was 0.51 percent. Going back further, only John F Kennedy in 1960 and Nixon in 1968 won the popular vote by smaller margins, 0.17 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.
Using raw votes, Trump’s margin was also smaller than in any election going back to 2000. At about 2.5 million, it was the fifth-smallest popular vote margin since 1960.
In both percentage and raw votes, Trump’s margin is on pace to be less than half of what Biden achieved four years earlier.
Meanwhile, there is ample evidence that Trump’s strong performance at the top of the ticket did not boost down-ballot candidates much.
Of the seven battleground states, five also held Senate races and one had a gubernatorial contest. The Republican candidate won Pennsylvania’s Senate race, but the Democrat won the Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, and the gubernatorial contest in North Carolina. In North Carolina, Democrats also won the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and superintendent of public instruction and were narrowly leading in a state Supreme Court race.
As the final handful of races are called, the US House is poised to end up at or near its margin from the previous two years, producing a Republican margin that is narrow by historical standards. In the state legislatures, Republicans gained only modestly in chamber control, while Democrats made inroads in other legislatures.
“Trump’s victory was solid and convincing,” said Barry Burden, a University of Wisconsin political scientist. Still, “the 2024 elections were not a general endorsement of the Republican Party. Many Republicans down ballot did not perform as well as Trump.”
So far this century, elections have been not only close, but have flipped back and forth between the parties. Since 2000, control of the presidency, the Senate or the House has flipped 16 times in 13 election cycles.
If this pattern holds, the Democrats could be well-positioned for the 2026 midterms and perhaps the 2028 presidential race. “Voters have been unhappy with the state of the country,” said Jack Pitney, a Claremont McKenna College political scientist. “Unless Trump creates an abrupt change in the national mood, Democrats have a good chance at a successful 2026 midterm.” Big enough. A win is a win, be it by 1 or 1 billion doesn’t matter. Maybe the question should be why did Harris lose? Until democrats answer that they’ll continue to lose.
Democrats won’t see the Whitehouse in the foreseeable future unless they drop their radical progressive ways. Americans rejected their boy and girl stance, butchering our children, wasteful spending..which we will truly only know about after Musk/Vivak expose taxpayer waste..Bidenflation, Obama’s back door rule..We are spending 6 trillion a year while only bringing in 4.5 trillion..
Those 80000 IRS people were hired for a reason, instead of cutting spending, democrats fully support shaking down the struggling middle class for the difference. The state run media is in shambles after their failed coup against Trump was not believed by the American people..Even with Kamala Harris’ Vote Total being over 74 million which I feel can’t be true.
I personally question Trump’s plan for mass deportation of immigrants.
When we need good workers in this country to keep the economy and new housing starts going while supporting the retirees in this country. I understand TRUMP’s Tariffs may cause more inflation and Fossil fuels may be outdated, because when he left his first term after we were cheated out of that because Biden stayed hidden in his basement. Auto makers did exhibit a willingness to introduce EVs into the marketplace even without the demand for them.
Trump is coming for the executive branch. Does he know what he’s doing?
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How Big of a Win Was This…Big enough…………..
I will never understand the disconnect. But I can tell you that as a teacher I see literacy rates plummeting and I believe that also has a lot to do with many parents not being able to critically think. According to the National Literacy Institute: 21% of adults in the US are illiterate in 2024. 54% of adults have a literacy below a 6th-grade level (20% are below 5th-grade level). Massachusetts was the state with the highest rate of child literacy. New Mexico was the state with the lowest child literacy rate. New Hampshire was the state with the highest percentage of adults considered literate. The state with the lowest adult literacy rate was California. And it’s only going to get worse with this new administration.
Critically think? Nothing but a made up term for a higher level of common sense so what really needs to be done is ensure CRT, DEI, and other “woke” progressive nonsense is removed and replaced with a pure STEM curriculum with a dose of higher level common sense . You are exactly correct, and thus the reason for Obama and Biden for 12 of the last 16 years …. Rapist and fraudster? Bill Clinton didn’t get elected again?
“Over the last decade-and-a-half, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Harris-Walz, and a host of other self-described elites have variously invented a wide range of smears and slurs—but about whom exactly? Who are these people that leftwing politicians have so vehemently derided—and why? They include Trump supporters, of course, or what Biden also dubbed “ultra-MAGAs” and Tim Walz called “fascists,” now without the prior qualifying prefix “semi.” In general, these adjectives of disdain denote about half the country according to the results of what will soon be the last three presidential elections.
This half is more rural than urban, characterized by larger than smaller families, more high-schooled diplomaed than college degrees, and more conventional and traditional than vanguard and trend-setting. Statisticians tell us the new non-clinging Democratic Party finds its greatest support from those who earn less than $50,000 and those who make considerably more than $100,000. These are the rich/poor bookends that surround the reformed Republican party in between.
So, in terms of generalized income and earnings, the left is now the party of the well-to-do professional and credential class and the rich, along with the subsidized poor. The Republicans, by contrast, are increasingly represented by the middle classes.” THIS IS WHY TRUMP WON… If the democrats stand a chance at being in charge of anything again, they had better stop calling people nazis, deplorables and garbage and they better move back to left of center where they traditionally have been.
Even Bill Maher is complaining about them and he’s as anti-Trump as they get.
Once freedom of the press is repealed the left media will be loaded with lawsuits and crumble and the right side will prevail from here on out. And domestic terrorism will be any speech from the left against the president (AKA TRUMP). I agree with Sylvester Stallone. Trump is our second George Washington. To you Dopy Dems, when the prices start coming down next year. Don’t pay those lower prices. protest for the higher ones.
Well what it tells me is that if this administration follows through on the campaign promises it will mean the 2028 election could be another Republican victory with an even larger percentage of the popular vote. Either way it will probably be the end of one party or the other and the emergence of a new one in 2028.
I know of no one who will ever vote Dem again. It’s out there, we all SEE what the left has done to this country. We’ll fight through the next 4 years and make sure they don’t get in the next election. American people are sick of the sickness the left has pushed. Not anymore. Following the election one reporter stated the Democrats no longer have a party leader. It does feel that way, who would you say currently would be that person or persons that can best define and represent the party’s platform? Is the party good with staying with the same people whose ideas are soundly being rejected by the majority of America?
This election was extremely big of reinvention proportions and demonstrated the real freedom we have in this country. Inflation was highest under Biden, not Trump. If you didn’t mind Biden’s 20% inflation, you should be alright with 20% inflation from Trump. Deficit increase under Trump was mainly due to covid spending spurred on by the dems.
Oh, so all the money flowing under Trump was beyond his control.
He sent two of the three stimulus checks (total $1800 vs Bidens $1400), had all the same unemployment coverage, PPP loans and other spending. You can act like it was so bad for Biden to spend more in early 2021, but your guy spent over half the money during COVID and people voted for added help in 2020 (Biden didn’t hide that he wanted to do more).
So if Biden is to blame, then so is Trump. Can’t have it both ways bub.
This might come as a shock, but not everyone feels the same way about societal issues as others do.
Considering there hasn’t been an “authority figure” in place to make tough decisions that benefit the nation the last four years, many see this as an upgrade. Some of us actually think spanking the misbehaving child is better than letting them run around without consequences. We are talking about adults here! Who is considered a “misbehaving child”?
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Just like in 2016 when there was a sizable anti-Hillary vote, Trump won on an anti-Biden vote after he spent 4 years lying and denigrating the Biden administration. His followers don’t care about facts because cult members focus on their leader and many others don’t appreciate the impact of what he plans to do. There is already a lot of buyer’s remorse being expressed even before he takes office.
Now, with an ever-shrinking margin of victory as the tally is finalized, we will hear the whining that the radical left wing, Marxist, Communist, Socialist democrats are lying about the margin and producing fake ballots. That will go on until inauguration day when he will declare the biggest crowd ever and then will whine about the fake news that says Obama’s crowd was bigger.
Pack your bags, it’s over. AMERICA is done with liberal nonsense.
The democrat party is 20 million in debt because of her. Yea id say your statement is accurate. The democrats are morons. IF they put up RFK Jr. they would have stood a solid chance against trump. But nah, they pissed RFK Jr. off and now he’s with us. Kind of sad to see a party cause so much hate and division that iconic people such as Kennedy would leave their party that their family has been a part of forever.
Also, do you really think MAGA will go away just because Trump would be term limited? We are not going anywhere. We are here to stay. Will be the reformed and rebuilt dream team political party. The republicans who are against trump are also against MAGA.
Unequivocally wrong. TRUMP was successful even while battling a worldwide epidemic that had not been experienced in decades destroying the global economy. He was inexperienced with the political swamp on his first round but he’s prepared this time and it’s telling from his hardline cabinet picks. These are people who will follow through with the tasks they are given to ensure his campaign promises that the people voted him to complete will be ACHIEVED.
When one adds the votes of the three times President Trump has run for President, President Trump has received more votes for President than anyone in the History of the United States of America has ever accumulated! Actually it does NOT. Vance/Gabbard for next 8 after that. Dems have NOTHING and I mean NOTHING even close against that ticket, even if they put up Newsom/Whitmer.
An unassailable margin in the Electoral College and a 2.5 mil advantage in the Popular Vote. I’d say the stats speak for themselves. All the chatter otherwise is just white noise.
If you really want a historical context, READ HISTORY.
The Liberal media loves to spin and spin to try to put things in their context.
The House, the Senate, and the Presidency went republican. In a very divided country, that is the closest thing to a landslide that can be reasonably expected. For contrast, at the most divided time in our nation’s history Lincoln got only 39.8% of the popular vote and 180 out of 303 Electoral College votes. To quote another US President, “Elections Have Consequences.” If you claim to support our Representative Republic, support that too.
It’s funny, how liberals voted for a man that hid in his basement and doesn’t know what day of the week it is, so someone else is in control that they didn’t vote for but call it a democracy. Even your great Nancy P told AOC it wasn’t a big deal that she won her district with a glass of water with a D beside it. By the way why isn’t the media looking for the 12 million votes that have simply disappeared if they are so unbiased
Democrats are so funny, they voted for a man that doesn’t know what day of the week it is and someone else commands yet they say they are for democracy. All you have to do is look at a county or geographical breakdown of where Trump and Harris won, and it is clear MAGA had a huge victory!
One reason to call it a BIG VICTORY, Trump saved America from the Socialist agenda of the Democrats, and kept a totally UNQUALIFIED candidate from winning the WH!
Unchartered territory as the Democrat is the party of complaint, blame, accusations, criticism, opposition, contrived grievance, revenge, platitudes, whining, and covering up for the Deep State.
New ideas? No Solutions to problems? No Serve all of the American people? No
Yeah, we’ll just have to grin and bear with Trump in office as we pay less for basic necessities, fuel, medication, housing, health care and other things we need. What a nightmare to see a positive balance in our bank accounts and to actually have money to spend. The very thought of knowing that we’ll have food on the table, food in the refrigerator, rent or mortgages fully paid and still having spending money.
Can Earth Support a Human Future? Maybe, If the Rich Consume Less.
The horror…., the horror…. If this election had been won by only one vote it still would have been a WIN. To this I say take that Woke Liberal Elite Dem “Party” of dictators. When this wonderful candidate is sworn in and takes over the reins from the really mostly disastrous bunch of bungling fools that occupy the place now, It is going to be wonderous for EVERY citizen of this country that is not a Woke Liberal Elite Dem hard core.
Lamestream Media needs to find a way to shift to the middle and report BOTH sides or it can go too. I am more than sure some country’s Dictator would want these people to control that population using the tools developed here. Other than this I am happy to report 
Everything is beautiful in its own way Like the summer starry sky or a snow-covered winter’s day I am so filled with happiness.
The headline starts as a question. Here’s the answer – he scraped by. There was nothing ”unprecedented or powerful’ about his mandate. The last I saw, he won the popular vote by 1.6%. The Electoral College negates the popular vote. I wonder how many didn’t vote because of this. The Electoral College is a stop-gap. It’s failing. It needs to be fixed.
The less populated states get a couple of votes. There’s a sense among voters in these states as to why bother? The Electoral College carries more weight. There should be an equitable distribution. Base it on the population but how many are actually registered to vote?? Whatever the solution, what exists isn’t working.
Stop with the Trump hate!
The last 4 years the country has been in turmoil thanks to the democrats hiding beneath the “Democracy” ideals and changing the country into destruction! With Trump we can breathe easier without Biden Harris sabotaging everything in America. Also, the ‘Freak Show’ is leaving, and I hope that they’ll take their fans with them….
MAGA/TAB 
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