Cheating Breaks Trends

What voters in close suburb that broke for Biden are saying about 2024

In critical states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, voters share mixed feelings about a deadlocked presidential race. © (Jeffrey Phelps / Associated Press)

I spent 3 days in the ‘blue wall’ states.

Here’s what voters told me

Story by Noah Bierman

It’s hard to believe after the Fox News interviews, the daily barrage of screaming ads and all the history on these two candidates that anyone would be left undecided with less than three weeks until election day.

Yet there they were, surprisingly easy to find, drinking lattes at a strip mall Starbucks, browsing magazines at Barnes & Noble and eating eggs with their spouses at a pancake restaurant. Some were leaning toward former President Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris but were waiting on family meetings or a final round of online research. Others were hoping for inspiration on the drive to the precinct on Nov. 5.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris hugs a child after speaking during a campaign event at Washington Crossing Historic Park, in Washington Crossing, Pa., Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. © (Jacquelyn Martin / Associated Press)

I spent three packed days last week in three industrial states that have proven critical in deciding the presidency during the Trump era — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — on and off the campaign trail with Harris, talking to voters along the way.

Polls show the race a dead heat in the three so-called “blue wall” states, along with the four other battlegrounds, with about 5% of voters undecided. But it’s difficult for broad surveys to capture the complexities and contradictions that run through voters’ minds as they process an unprecedented election that involves a candidate who tried to overturn his 2020 election loss and would be the first president in history with multiple indictments and felony convictions.

I found Democrats battling insomnia and altering travel plans, Republicans who were friendly to a reporter but suspicious of the mainstream media and an overriding sense of disillusionment.

“Both of them are not good,” said Amgad Fram, a 61-year-old engineer from a Detroit suburb called Novi who was meeting for coffee with a friend.

Amgad Fram, of Detroit, remains undecided in the last three weeks of the campaign but is leaning 60-40 toward voting for Trump. © (Noah Bierman / Los Angeles Times)

He started the conversation saying he would vote for Trump for the third time because he’s going to “stop the flood of people coming to this country,” Fram said “You know, I shouldn’t be saying that, because I am a foreigner,” who moved from Jordan in 1981.

He is angry about a recent break-in at his brother’s mansion by Ecuadorian migrants here illegally, he said. And he pointed to sky-high unemployment in Jordan, which has one of the world’s highest refugee populations, as a cautionary tale.

But the conversation flipped when he began discussing Trump’s refusal to concede the 2020 election and his increasingly authoritarian rhetoric.

“I don’t really like that,” Fram said. “The reason we first immigrated to this country was to be free and to get rid of those dictators.”

He put his current odds of supporting Trump at 60% and said it would depend on a meeting with his large family.

The more committed Republicans I spoke with tended to dismiss those aspects of Trump’s rhetoric, blaming the media for a double standard and accusing prosecutors of pushing a political agenda.

Donald Trump arrives to speak at a meeting of the Detroit Economic Club on Thursday in Detroit. © (Julia Demaree Nikhinson / Associated Press)

“You kind of dance with the devil you know,” said Yves Francois, a 55-year-old salesman from Hartland, Mich., who was eating a fast-casual Middle Eastern lunch with his friend in Oakland County, just outside of Detroit. “Do I have a problem with that? I don’t know,” he said of the criminal charges and convictions. “The timing of it seems pretty crazy when these are things that could have happened four, five, six, seven years ago and you just now bring them to light.”

He was curious whether I would ask similar questions challenging Harris supporters but said he did not mind and wished we could all have a more civil dialogue. To him, Trump’s statements alarm people and then we “take our eyes off of the stuff that’s really obvious” with the economy and the broken immigration system.

The Harris campaign is spending the closing weeks begging voters to keep their eyes on Trump’s threats to use the military against his political enemies, his attempts to overturn the last election that resulted in the Jan. 6 insurrection and the range of former high-ranking members of his national security staff who have warned that he is a threat to democracy. They are frustrated that Americans are giving his presidency a much higher approval rating in retrospect than they did when he was in office.

“We barely survived,” said Olivia Troye, a former national security official in the Trump administration who praised the actions of her former boss, Vice President Mike Pence, and others who pushed back against Trump.

Troye spoke with me on a vivid fall day in Washington Crossing, Pa., a historic park along the Delaware River, after appearing on stage with Harris and other Republicans who warned about Trump.

Olivia Troye speaks at a Kamala Harris campaign event Wednesday in Washington Crossing, Pa. © (Matt Slocum / Associated Press)

“When he starts talking about using the military against people, or law enforcement, I think we should take that very seriously because those discussions were had in the White House where he actually talked about shooting Americans,” Troye continued. “I was there for those. I witnessed that. No president should ever talk about shooting his own people.”

That’s scaring committed Democrats like Claudia Seldon, a retired rehab nurse who was having her Wednesday coffee meet-up with friends in a downtown Detroit cafe earlier in the day.

“I’m worried if he does win, what’s gonna happen and if he doesn’t win, what’s gonna happen,” said Seldon, who plans to leave early this year for her winter home in Nevada to avoid traveling during potential election related turmoil.

Her friends Heather Hamilton and Joan Nagrant were counting absentee ballots in 2020 at the convention center when crowds tried to interrupt the process, a foreshadowing of Jan. 6. They were sequestered but remain nervous about returning for the job this year.

Heather Hamilton, Claudia Seldon and Joan Nagrant talked about their election plans over coffee in downtown Detroit. © (Noah Bierman / Los Angeles Times)

Many voters are seeing Harris’ ads with Troye and others running in battleground states. But some just hear political noise. The fliers that come through the mail slot accumulate but go unread. These voters manage to avoid news about the two candidates racing back and forth through their states on a near weekly basis.

“It’s less about us and more about them,” said Daniel Santos, a 36-year-old water company employee from Racine, Wis., who voted for former President Obama and Trump and has yet to make up his mind this time.

Daniel Santos, 36, who works for a water company in Racine, Wis., is undecided in the presidential race. © (Noah Bierman / Los Angeles Times)

“I will vote,” said Ana Gallo, a 36-year-old warehouse worker who was putting up Halloween decorations in front of her small house in Racine. “I gotta sit down and think about it and read a little bit about what’s going on.”

A U.S. citizen from Mexico, she has been working on her husband’s legal status for more than a decade. That will weigh heavily on her vote, as will the economy. Trump says a lot of “over the top” things but she didn’t think he governed that way when he was in office, she said. She’s still learning about Harris.

Regina Gallacher, a 58-year-old physical therapist from Rochester Hills, Mich., said she is looking for a third party candidate because Trump “really scares me” but and she doesn’t “get warm fuzzies” when she hears Harris talk and found her replacement of President Biden on the ballot “very slimy.”

Her husband, a union Democrat, is voting for Trump for the first time but they don’t talk about it at home because Gallacher, who grows repulsed when Trump appears on television, would rather avoid a heated conversation with her husband, who is unlikely to change his mind. If she has to choose between the two, it will be Harris, she said. But she is unsure.

“We’ll get through it” if Trump wins, she said. “I just won’t be happy about it.”

Regina Gallacher, a 58-year-old physical therapist from Rochester Hills, Mich., said she is looking for a third party candidate. © (Noah Bierman / Los Angeles Times)

Just when the divisions seemed bleakest, I ran into Jim Kusters, a retiree and Trump supporter who was sitting for breakfast in Mt. Pleasant, Wis., with his two friends: a Harris voter and a former supporter of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who would not say who will now get his vote.

Kusters said his biggest problem was media bias. But it didn’t stop him from talking to a reporter or bantering with his friends. It wasn’t personal for any of them. Between taking shots at the candidates, they told stories about their families.

“We go back and forth all the time,” Kusters said.

Like just about everyone I met, they are ready for the campaign to end.

“Trump is obviously insane, and then Harris, I don’t think she has a plan,” said Clayton Ewing, a 63-year-old retiree from Shelby Township, Mich. who has voted for Trump in prior elections. Ewing said he may wait until he gets to the polls to make a final decision.

“I just hope whoever gets in, does a good job,” he said.

“We can go four years down the road and get some new characters.”

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

That sounds interesting! The “blue wall” states typically refer to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which have historically voted for Democratic candidates in presidential elections 1.

What did you do during your visit?

Any memorable experiences or places you enjoyed?

Learn more 1en.wikipedia.org 2abcnews.go.com 3msn.com

4msn.com 5apnews.com 6thehill.com

The Democratic governors of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are actively campaigning to support Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential bid. They are touring their states to energize voters and emphasize the importance of these key “blue wall” states in the upcoming election 1 2.

Don’t Believe The Communist Democrats (Obama’s Propaganda.) Would you like to know more about their campaign efforts or the upcoming election?

The ignorance of the left continues to amaze me.

Why would you talk about something you know nothing about. At least educate yourself so you have accurate talking points. The left just regurgitates everything the media says. These people are living a life of lies…..Ones that could land them in a communist nation.

If this happens, they will learn what hardship means. The problem is they’ve been given so much that they have no idea how much they have to lose. It’s going to be a very sad day if dancing the Harris Waltz gets into office. People are going to have a stark, fast, and cruel education on what it means to live in that kind of country.

Learn more 1apnews.com 2abcnews.go.com 3nationalpost.com 4newsroom.ap.org

Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go?

By Ryan Matsumoto

Graphics by Elena Mejía

Filed under 2020 Election

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES

From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016.

But in 2020, 18 of these 19 “bellwether counties” voted for former President Donald Trump. Just one — Clallam County, Washington — voted for President Joe Biden.

The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020.

[Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Will That Last?]

These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. For instance, Washington County, Maine — the median bellwether county in terms of its share that’s non-Hispanic white — is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelor’s degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide.

White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below.

Arguably, it was 2016 — and not 2020 — when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton.

In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status.

[The Frost Belt & Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of America’s Urban-Rural Divide]

That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation.

In fact, they became even more Republican — the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Ultimately, of course, Trump’s strong performance in these counties didn’t matter because of Biden’s gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia.

But it’s not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties.

[How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]

In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. As we’ve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can suddenly end thanks to America’s continually evolving political and demographic trends. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election.

The United States is composed of 3,143 counties or county equivalents. Of them, Clallam County, in northwest Washington, has the longest record of always voting for the winning presidential candidate.

Since 1980, Clallam County has voted in every presidential election for the candidate that would go on to win the White House. Since 1920, it has only voted for the losing candidate in 1968 and 1976. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will vote—bellwethers.

Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980.

Those counties were:

Warren County, Ill.
Vigo County, Ind.
Bremer County, Iowa
Washington County, Maine
Shiawassee County, Mich.
Van Buren County, Mich.
Hidalgo County, N.M.
Valencia County, N.M.
Cortland County, N.Y.
Otsego County, N.Y.
Ottawa County, Ohio
Wood County, Ohio
Essex County, Vt.
Westmoreland County, Va.
Clallam County Wash.
Juneau County, Wis.
Marquette County, Wis.
Richland County, Wis.
Sawyer County, Wis.

Until the 2020 election, Valencia County, N.M., held the record for the longest streak of selecting the winning presidential candidate, going back to 1952. ALSO, Vigo County, Ind. began selecting the winning presidential candidate in 1956. Ottawa County, Ohio, Westmoreland County, Va., Juneau County, Wis., and Sawyer County, Wis., started their streak in 1964.

Clallam County is holding municipal elections in its three cities—Port Angeles, Sequim, and Forks—in 2021. Twenty-six offices are up for election in those cities.

The 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, A recent history of presidential election bellwether counties

By Samuel Wonacott

The concept of “pivot counties” refers to counties that have consistently voted for

the winning presidential candidate over multiple election cycles. While I couldn’t find a specific list of 19 pivot counties that have correctly picked the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, there are several well-known swing counties that have played a crucial role in recent elections.

These counties often reflect broader national trends and can be key indicators

of the overall election outcome.

Some notable examples include: