Why We’ll Never Run Out of Oil | Discover Magazine
When Arab nations cut off oil shipments to the United States during the 1973
war in the Middle East, gasoline prices abruptly rose 40 percent and panic ensued.
Motorists idled in long lines at gas stations, where creeping tensions led to fights and even occasional shootings. Automakers scrambled to retool their assembly lines to manufacture miserly compacts rather than gas-guzzling behemoths.
Entrepreneurs poured millions into upstart solar-energy and wind-power companies. Politicians pontificated about the need for collective belt-tightening and offered income tax credits to homeowners for energy-saving insulation. Meanwhile, doomsday scenarios predicted ever-increasing shortages of fossil fuels and $100-a-barrel oil prices by the year 2000.
Last year, wells around the world — from the sands of Saudi Arabia to the deep continental trench off the coast of Brazil — will pump some 75 million barrels of oil each day to satisfy demand. That’s about 25 billion barrels a year, and the number is climbing at a rate between 2 and 3 percent a year. Barring a worldwide recession, the U.S. Energy Information Administration believes the world will be consuming around 110 million barrels a day by the year 2020. And it looks as though we won’t be running short by then either. “It’s hard for people who remember the seventies to accept this, but I believe we’ll never ‘run out’ of oil the way the pessimists used to think,” says Michael Lynch, a political scientist at MIT.
Does oil replenish over time?
Oil does not replenish over time as quickly as it is extracted1.
It takes millions of years for oil to form, and the conditions on modern Earth
do not support oil replenishment at the contemporary rate of extraction 1.
Leaving oil in your engine beyond the recommended oil change date can result in damage, so regular oil changes are necessary to remove contaminated oil and replenish the engine with fresh oil 2 3.
The question of when the world’s oil supply will run out is complex and depends on various factors, including consumption rates, technological advancements, and the discovery of new reserves. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the world’s oil supply is projected to continue meeting the growing global energy demand until at least 20501. However, some estimates suggest that current oil supplies could last for about 41 years 2, while others indicate that oil reserves might be depleted
by 2052 3.
It’s important to note that these are estimates and actual outcomes may vary
due to changes in energy policies, shifts towards renewable energy sources,
and improvements in energy efficiency.
The concept of “peak oil” also plays a role, which is the point at which the maximum
rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that we could reach peak demand for
oil in 2028, influenced by factors like rising prices and the increased adoption of electric vehicles 1.
As the world moves towards more sustainable energy sources and technologies,
the reliance on oil may decrease, potentially extending the time before oil reserves
are fully depleted.
How long will oil supply run out?
You may have read that the world’s oil supply will run out in a few decades.
In the early 80s, it was not uncommon to read that the supply of oil would
be gone for all practical purposes in just a few years.
Fortunately, these predictions weren’t accurate.
But the notion that we will exhaust all the oil under the surface of the earth persists.
There may well come a time when we no longer use oil remaining in the ground because
of the impact of hydrocarbons on climate or because there are cheaper alternatives.
Mistaken Assumptions
Many predictions that we will run out of oil after a certain period of time are based
on a flawed understanding of how the reserve supply of oil should be assessed.
One typical way of making the assessment uses these factors:
The number of barrels we can extract with existing technology.
The number of barrels used worldwide in a year.
Naive Calculation
The naivest way to make a prediction is to simply do the following calculation:
Yrs. of oil left = # of barrels available / # of barrels used in a year.
So, if there are 150 million barrels of oil in the ground and we use 10 million a year,
this type of thinking would suggest that the oil supply will run out in 15 years.
If the predictor realizes that with new drilling technology
we can gain access to more oil, he will incorporate this into his estimate
of #1 making a more optimistic prediction of when the oil will run out.
If the predictor incorporates population growth and the fact that demand
for oil per person often rises, he will incorporate this into his estimate for
#2 making a more pessimistic prediction.
These predictions, however, are inherently flawed
because they violate basic economic principles.
READ MORE
The Truth About Middle East Oil Reserves
By Pierre Tristam
We Will Never Run Out of Oil
At least not in a physical sense. There will still be oil in the ground 10 years from now,
and 50 years from now and 500 years from now. This will hold true no matter if you take
a pessimistic or optimistic view about the amount of oil still available to be extracted.
Let’s suppose that the supply really is quite limited.
What will happen as the supply starts to diminish?
First, expect to see some wells run dry and either be replaced with
new wells that have higher associated costs or not be replaced at all.
Price Bump at the Pump
Either of these would cause the price at the pump to rise.
When the price of gasoline rises, people naturally buy less of it;
the amount of this reduction being determined by the amount of the price increase and the consumer’s elasticity of demand for gasoline. This does not necessarily mean that people will drive less (though it is likely), it may mean that consumers trade in their SUVs for smaller cars, hybrid vehicles, electric cars or cars that run on alternative fuels.
Each consumer will react to the price change differently, so we would expect to see everything from more people bicycling to work to used car lots full of Lincoln Navigators.
Supply and Demand
If we go back to Economics 101, this effect is clearly visible.
The continual reduction of the supply of oil is represented by a series of small
shifts of the supply curve to the left and an associated move along the demand curve.
Since gasoline is a normal good, Economics 101 tells us that we will have a series of price increases and a series of reductions in the total amount of gasoline consumed.
Eventually, the price will reach a point where gasoline will become a niche good purchased by very few consumers, while other consumers will have found alternatives to gas.
When this happens there will still be plenty of oil in the ground, but consumers will have found alternatives that make more economic sense to them, so there will be little, if any, demand for gasoline.
More Money for Fuel Cell Research?
There already exists plenty of alternatives to the standard internal combustion engine. With gasoline less than $2 a gallon in most areas of the United States, electric cars are not very popular. If the price were significantly higher, say $4 or $6, we’d expect to see quite a few electric cars on the road. Hybrid cars, while not a strict alternative to the internal combustion engine, would reduce the demand for gasoline as these vehicles can get twice the mileage of many comparable cars.
Electric and Hybrid Cars
Advances in these technologies, making electric and hybrid cars cheaper to produce and more useful, may make fuel cell technology unnecessary. Keep in mind that as the price of gasoline rises, the car manufacturers will have an incentive to develop cars which run on less expensive alternative fuels in order to win the business of consumers fed up with high gas prices. An expensive government program in alternative fuels and fuel cells seems unnecessary.
How Will This Effect the Economy?
When a useful commodity, such as gasoline, becomes scarce, there is always a cost to the economy, just as there would be a benefit to the economy if we discovered a limitless form of energy. This is because the value of the economy is roughly measured by the value of the goods and services it produces.
Remember that barring any unforeseen tragedy or deliberate measure to limit the supply of oil, the supply will not drop suddenly, meaning that the price will not rise suddenly.
1970s Were Different
The 1970s were much different because we saw a sudden and significant drop in the amount of oil on the world market due to a cartel of oil-producing nations deliberately cutting back on production in order to raise the world price. This is quite a bit different than a slow natural decline in the supply of oil due to depletion. So, unlike the 1970s,
we should not expect to see large lines at the pump and large overnight price increases.
This is assuming that the government does not try to “fix” the problem of declining oil supply by rationing. Given what the 1970s taught us, this would be very unlikely.
Gasoline: A Niche Commodity
If markets are allowed to function freely the supply of oil will never run out, in a physical sense, though it’s quite likely that in the future gasoline will become a niche commodity. Changes in consumer patterns and the emergence of new technology driven by increases in the price of oil will prevent the oil supply from ever physically running out.
While predicting doomsday scenarios may be a good way to get people to know your name, they are a very poor predictor of what is likely to happen in the future.
Types of Home Heating Systems (2024 Guide) (thisoldhouse.com)
Choosing the best heating system for your home depends on various factors
such as your climate, house size, energy efficiency, and personal preferences.
Here’s a summary of some common heating systems and their benefits:
1. Furnace: A forced-air furnace is a popular choice that uses natural gas, propane,
oil, or electricity to heat air that is then distributed throughout the home via ducts.
It’s known for its affordability and compatibility with existing ductwork.
2. Boiler: Boilers heat water and distribute the steam or hot water to radiators or baseboard heaters. This type of radiant heating is efficient and provides even warmth, making it suitable for homes in colder regions.
3. Heat Pump: Heat pumps are highly efficient and can provide both heating and cooling. They work best in moderate climates and can be less effective in very cold temperatures.
4. Electric Space Heaters: These are portable and can be a good option for heating individual rooms or small spaces. They come in various types, including infrared, oil-filled, and fan-forced models.
5. Hydronic Heating Systems: These systems use hot water from a boiler to heat the home through a series of pipes installed under the floor or in baseboard heaters.
When considering a new heating system, it’s important to look at the annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE) rating, which measures how much of the energy consumed
is actually converted into heat. Modern systems can have AFUE ratings as high as 98.5%, indicating high efficiency.
For personalized advice, it would be beneficial to consult with a local HVAC expert who can assess your specific needs and recommend the most suitable system for your home. They can take into account the size of your home, insulation quality, local climate, and energy costs to help you make an informed decision.
How About Geothermal and Solar Energy for Expanded Electric Bills.
Pairing Geothermal Plus Rooftop Solar For A Truly Renewable Home – CleanTechnica
Real Customer Reviews | Best Company
How About Other Ways to Heat a Home.
The best way to compare energy prices in your
market is to look at the price per unit of heat value.
Most Efficient Heating System – Forbes Home
Scientists measure heat value in British Thermal Units or BTUs for short.
A BTU is the amount of energy required to raise one pound of water one degree F.
It is about the heat of a birthday candle flame.
Heating Oil has 138,690 BTUs per gallon.
Click here to learn about the other benefits of heating oil.
Natural Gas has 1,030 BTUs per cubic foot. 135 Cubic feet equals the
heat content of one gallon of oil. Kerosene has 131,890 BTUs per gallon.
1.05 gallons equals the heat content of one gallon of oil.
Propane has 91,500 BTUs per gallon. 1.52 gallons equals the heat of one gallon of oil.
Electricity has 3,413 BTUs per kilowatt hour (kwh). 40.6kwh equals the heat content of one gallon of oil.
Wood: One full cord of wood has the heat value of 95 gallons of oil.
Anthracite Coal has 12,000 BTUs per pound. About 12 pounds equals the heat content of one gallon of oil.
When comparing the unit costs for the various fuels, remember to include any taxes and meter or service charges the gas or electric companies add to the bill.
Knowing the Cost to Convert from Oil to Gas
Before making the decision to switch from oil to gas, consider what it may cost!
There are many factors that affect how much a conversion can cost, including:
Adding a gas line
Updating appliances
Installing a chimney liner
Removing the old oil tank
The contractor you choose.
Additionally, here are some things we want our customers to know before making the move from oil to gas: The United States has only 4% of the world’s natural gas reserves, while 73% are located in Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
Methane losses from natural gas systems account for 18% total worldwide methane emissions, according to the international organization Methane to Markets.
The Consumer Energy Council of America calls fuel conversion an “expensive gamble”
and recommends that homeowners upgrade their oil equipment to achieve conservation, rather than switch fuels. Conversion is more expensive than upgrading, with a low likelihood of meaningful savings. Natural gas is explosive, and leaks can be hazardous.
Natural gas heating systems are also the leading cause of non-fire-related carbon monoxide deaths
Gas utilities generally provide neither preventive maintenance nor emergency service.
As a result, gas customers also may be wasting fuel by using poorly tuned equipment,
and they might have no one who will help them in the event of a no-heat emergency.
This new Google Maps feature is game changer for EV drivers.
Kathleen Wong USA TODAY
Electric vehicle drivers are getting a little extra help on the road from Google Maps.
Google Maps and Search is rolling out new features tailored just for electric vehicles, including specific information on the location of EV chargers and hotels with on-site chargers. Maps will also help drivers plan charging stops on their travels in real time.
In 2023, 1.6 million electric vehicles were sold in the U.S., up 60% from 2022. However, one of the common concerns about owning an electric vehicle is that people don’t know where to charge them.
One of the features now available on mobile is AI-powered summaries detailing a charger’s exact location since it can be difficult for drivers to locate where a charger is in a multilevel parking lot. Google created the summaries based on millions of reviews posted in Google Maps by fellow users, including what type of plug they used and charging time. In Maps, drivers get detailed summaries leading them right to the charger.
Google Maps EV Charger Maps – Search (bing.com)
Google Maps is a solo traveler’s friend: Expert advice for your first trip
How to activate iPhone’s Emergency SOS feature (yahoo.com)
While on-the-go, Google Maps’ in-car map will also display nearby chargers, including real-time port availability and charging speed. While giving directions, Google Maps will also suggest the best charging locations on one- and multi-stop trips. The suggested stops will be based on the car’s battery level. Cars with built-in Google will be the first to get these two features in the coming months, the company said.
To help drivers with their overnight travel plans,
Google Search’s travel page will also show hotels with on-site EV charging.
Kathleen Wong is a travel reporter for USA TODAY based in Hawaii.
You can reach her at kwong@usatoday.com.
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